Confessional, Round 7

[Bebe]

Wow.

Just wow.

That exile was the easiest one ever. I literally didn't have to do anything. I didn't have to push a vote or save my butt or really worry about who was voting for who.

It was great.

I can't believe we're one freaking exile away from winning. If we lose now, we are the worst Spies ever.

Now we have to figure out where we go from here:

- Imprison Taylor: Well, Taylor's pretty headstrong ... but we can influence her. I'd love to get a gift, but there's no guarantee she'd give one to me. So far, Matthew, Jordan, Arthur, Claire, Jessica, Tenchi, and I haven't received one. So that's 4/7 chance we'd get 1 gift. I don't think she'd give one to Matthew because he's absolutely useless, so it's 4/6 really. Plus, she'd vote Arthur or Matthew out, I believe. So there are plusses in keeping her in. On the other hand, she's a confirmed citizen, so any real citizen can pull her and jordan over and have 3/6 votes they need to vote out a Spy.

- Imprison Jordan: He's a confirmed citizen, but he's totally worthless. He didn't even vote this time. He has no idea what's going on. Anyone can pull him over, if they can find him. So all we have to do is find him first.

- Imprison Reicheru: She's so fucking nuts. It's really tempting. She is just off the walls insane. And she wants me out. So imprisoning her is very tempting. On the downside, it means that 2 of the 3 remaining Leaderboard people are Spies, which is pretty major exposure.

- Imprison Arthur: I don't see any reason to. He trusts me and he's a big target. He doesn't really seem to know what's going on. On the other hand, it's really hard to get him to vote the way you want him to, and his major suspects left are Reicheru and Jessica. If Jessica gets targeted, he could end up voting for her.

- Imprison Matthew: I don't see any reason to bother. He's crazy too. No one listens to him. He's really annoying. On the other hand, he suspects Claire and would hop on that bandwagon.

- Imprison Bruce: This is very tempting. He's a smart guy, and with Jack gone, he'll be working the hardest to figure out what's going on. If he targets the wrong person, we're golden. If he targets the right person, we might be doomed. Jack might have added some credibility to his name (even though Jack really doesn't know what he's talking about - if you talk to him sincerely, he believes you). We might be able to get him exiled. But he's not a confirmed citizen, and those are sort of our priorities right now.

- Imprison Brooks: Nah. He might catch on but he doesn't have any real friends or real clout. He's not confirmed. He's suspected. He could be a great exile target.


I still hate being a Spy. I'd rather be a Citizen and get the win for the Citizens. But you deal with the hand you're dealt, so this means screwing a bunch of good people yet again this round. I hope it's all over Sunday.

[Bebe]

I figured the smart thing to do would be post my analysis of the other players ASAP. I didn't expect it to come out so heavily against Reicheru, but when I slipped into Bebe mode, she suspected her. This whole "in character" thing is not really my deal. It's too weird.

In reply to my accusation, Bruce said:

You're absolutely right, if I were a spy, I probably would be slick enough to win Jack over, but Jack was also a smart guy. Would I really be able to have kept him won over for a week and a half, with several long discussions about the game and what to do?

Well Bruce, I did it. It really wasn't that hard. True, he voted for me in the last round, but he didn't try to push the idea or sell it to anyone, so I don't think even he believed in it.

[Bebe]

I'm rereading the costume party forum now - the game's not over and i'm already nostalgic - and there is some damn good stuff in there. Not really in terms of theories or accusations or anything, just in hilarity.

My favorite in particular is abattleaxe. Soooo funny. Shoutouts to Batman, that muscle guy whose name I forget, and spies65sam. I mean, I'm like "What the heck is going on in here?" and cracking up. Some of these people really belong at OT. I didn't have much time to post because of my vacation, and I had also chosen an "evil" character, but now I wish I had joined in more on the fun. I had some good stuff lined up that I just never got to use because I was so short on time and computer access.

[Bebe]

hmmmm this is a toughie i mean it could go either way i could sit here and deliberate for days maybe i should consult my horoscope cuz maybe saturn is in the fifth house and i should go with someone but if saturn is in the sixth house then well that changes things entirely i mean there are seven citizens seven different outcomes and any of them could result in us winning or losing maybe if a butterfly flaps its wings in china it will influence how i vote or maybe the person at the computer terminal next to me who is sniffling will give a big sneeze and make me change my mind i just don't want to rush into a big idea like this that quickly so i will sit here some more and deliberate about it and then i might get up and walk around and deliberate it and then maybe i will go for a run and run around deliberating it but if that does not work out then i will return to this computer right here in this building that i am in a building that has chairs and tables and computers of course because i would not be able to deliberate this problem and post my answer if there was not a computer in front of me so right now i am here and i have a question in front of me who do i imprison and i still am deliberating well there are pros and cons to imprisoning everyone in this group on the one hand if we choose the right one we win but if we choose the wrong one we lose and that is some very serious consequences not as serious as some of the big choices and consequences we face in life but you never know if the outcome of this game will sway things one way or another and therefore i must seriously contemplate which way i will sway on this question that question being who should we imprison this round and so i have reached my answer and it is taylor.



This is how I've been thinking for the last month.

[Bebe]

My theory:

Looking at the confirmed people, we have: Bebe, Jessica, Jordan, Taylor, possibly Reicheru, possibly Bruce

That leaves: Arthur, Raphael, Tenchi, Matthew, Claire, Brooks

This means that for the challenge, my team had 0 Spies. It's a hard sell, but it's possible my team had 0 Spies because I pulled Bruce and Miles over so fast. Bruce can confirm this.



Our Spies are Arthur, Tenchi, Matthew, Claire, and Brooks.

Matthew voted for Claire in a big show. He also fights with Brooks in a big show.

Claire defends Brooks to everyone.

Arthur gunned for everyone in the original group but Tenchi.

Arthur and Brooks pushed the Miles exile - Miles had a role, of course they would want him gone.

Arthur and Brooks also voted for Jack - Jack was a smart citizen, of course they would want him gone.

Brooks and Arthur adamently defended me in Exile 6 when Miles went. I wasn't the original target. They wanted someone with a role out - they wanted Miles out.

Claire voted for me in round 4 but didn't jump on the bandwagon when Jack tried to get me out in round 6. That's because Miles was the target for that round, not me.

The Spies needed to take the heat off of Arthur for being #1 on the Spy list.

Claire and Brooks and Tenchi and Matthew have never really accused Arthur.

Claire and Matthew were together on a team because Bruce and I didn't ask them to join ours.

Brooks and Tenchi were together on a team - Tenchi by surprise when Reicheru left, and Brooks because he let Jack put him on that team.

Right after the Spy letter was posted, Matthew said he suspected:
Spies: Bebe, Brooks, Jessica, Arthur, Claire
Right there are the 2 next targets, and 3 fellow Spies to cover his back.

[Bebe]

Quotes I need:

spies3Bebe: team?
spies3Bebe: with taylor?
spies3Bebe: she's not answering
spies3Bruce: sure! we could win that
spies3Bebe: team with who's smart
spies3Bebe: brooks?
spies3Bruce: hmm, that could work
spies3Bebe: grab a third he's not answering either
spies3Bebe: reicheru?
spies3Bebe: miles?
spies3Bruce: is there anyone else left that's smart? reicheru said she might have to leave early
spies3Bebe: miles?
spies3Bebe: rats
spies3Bebe: jack?
spies3Bebe: miles said ok
spies3Bruce: darn jack's gone too
spies3Bruce: ok that sounds good
spies3Bebe: ok you me miles
spies3Bebe: detla
spies3Bruce: posting now


spies3Bebe: you me bruce?
spies3Miles: sure
spies3Bebe: post
spies3Bebe: delta
spies3Miles: got it



spies3Bebe: bruce
spies3Bebe: jack is convinced that either tenchi or jessica is a spy, should i investigate jessica?
spies3Bebe: spies3Miles: i would say try jess, but it's 100% up to you
spies3Bruce: i'm actually sort of worried about jessica, i would be supportive of that
spies3Bebe: ok i will change to jessica
spies3Bruce: i'd definitely say jess over tenchi, i don't think a spy would be reckless as him



spies3Brooks: I think Miles is a spy
spies3Reicheru: Hai.
spies3Reicheru: That at least is one.
spies3Reicheru: I can vote for Miles.
spies3Reicheru: Anybody else want to make a suggestion?
spies3Brooks: I am voting for Miles
spies3Tenchi: Brooks, post your Miles theory, I think it also fits.
spies3Brooks: give me a few mins I'm going upstairs to get my dinner
spies3Brooks: when I return in a few mins I'll post it
spies3Miles: um, what is the miles theory? lol
spies3Brooks: the theory is about why you are a spy

[Bebe]

I can see why Sam forced us to imprison Jordan, but it really was quite unfair that he didn't cancel out citizen abilities in exchange like he did in Spies 2.

This is in addition to

- Forcing Jordan's imprisonment only what, 2 hours before the deadline even though at that point Jordan had been inactive for almost a week. We didn't have any time to make a point like "Give us something in exchange".

- Letting the imprisoned/exiled players have their say - collectively a group of 13 people comparing notes and working together with nothing to lose. I personally thought it was an interesting twist, but to do it at the potential last exile on top of everything else?

- Refusing to post that Jordan was a forced imprisonment until Raphael stepped up as Decision Maker

- Removing inactive and accusation votes so early (they weren't gone until F8 last game and this time it was at F14)

- Changing the exile pattern early so there wouldn't be a tie this round. He also deliberately did not inform the players ahead of time, which made the strategies we were using last round useless and obsolete this round, and resulted in unexpected scrambling this round.


Sam is throwing every possible thing at us to make sure that a Spy goes at one point in this game. He is incredibly biased towards the Citizens because he wants more drama.

That's really dirty and yes, I am partially accusing Sam of rigging the game. He admitted himself that he changed things around that were predetermined (like the double exile) to give the citizens more help. And everything that he did above, he did in the last round.

So fuck that.

[Bebe]

I'm still in panic mode. However, things might work out all right after all. There's still hope.

Jessica in the Spy HQ:

I GOT THE GIFT.

It simply says that Brooks is a citizen.

I'm not sure if the gift was supposed to reveal a random citizen, investigate a random person, or investigate the person of Taylor's choice. I could lie with this to frame someone as a spy, or I could say that one of you is a citizen.

Now this might mean Taylor still trusts Jessica if she chose Jessica, and not Tenchi or me, to receive this round's gift. So that's a plus.

The biggest minus is Brooks is confirmed as a citizen when this information gets out. That brings the number of unconfirmed citizens down to 4, and there are 5 spies left.

however, if Jessica tries to lie about it, she could be caught in a trap. We don't know how Brooks specifically was investigated - Was it random? Did Sam promise to reveal the identity of a citizen? Did Taylor choose who received the investigation results? We don't know.

So I told Jessica my idea:

well i think if you are going to come forward with it, you need to use it as a "trap".

tell taylor and brooks that brooks is confirmed. just them.

say you are going to push brooks' name forward and see who jumps on it.

if we have enough people then there's your spy bandwagon.

it will of course include arthur and matthew, and maybe bruce.

Jessica liked my idea (I personally think it's brilliant!). In a perfect world, she'd get Brooks and Taylor's trust and their votes, and Arthur or Matthew (or maybe even Reicheru or Bruce) would go this round.

I trust her ability to manipulate people. She's proved throughout this game that it's one of her biggest strengths. She worked her magic on Bruce and Taylor in round 5 when we tried to exile Anneliese. She worked her magic on Brooks last round when she convinced him to vote Jack. She had a big hand in getting Carrie out as well, I think.

Out of the 5 of us, I think she's the most persuasive.

I think Claire's the most crazy and makes us look at what's going on a different way - she's usually wrong, but it never hurts to look at things from another angle. Plus it means she's not predictable.

I think Raphael's the most neutral and camoflaged. I think people suspect him right now just to fill in the blanks of "Who's the fifth Spy?". He got Shane to trust him enough to give him the Shane Grenade. He was third from the bottom on the Spy list. He's also level-headed so when he does have something to say, it's usually worthwhile.

I think Tenchi's the glue that holds this group together, and I think he's the biggest outside-the-box thinker. At times he does a wonderful job appearing to be a genuine citizen. He's the sort of de facto leader of the Spy group. He and I don't usually see eye to eye because I'm more of a conservative player and he is unconventional, but he's given me a lot to think about in terms of what makes a good Spy.

I'm not sure where I come in. I'm the challenge hero ... I definitely contribute to strategy and manipulation and information gathering ... I'm just not sure what it is that I bring to the group that's unique.

[Bebe]

I forgot to mention something in my Round 6 Confessional. I was reminded of it when I talked to Tenchi tonight.

Tenchi argues that Jack is the smartest Citizen in the bunch: that Jack had the best ideas but people didn't listen and Spies were outmaneuvering him.

He chose the example of Jack's plan to exile me in round 6. Now I respect what Jack was trying to do, but Jack's plan was backwards. He had his priorities wrong.

Jack's plan:
Exile Bebe.
If she's a Citizen, we know Jessica's a citizen.
If she's a Spy, then we don't know what Jessica is.

So according to his plan you either get a Spy out or you get a confirmed citizen out of the deal. That sounds nice, but this is better:

Exile Jessica.
If she's a Citizen, then we don't know what Bebe is.
If she's a Spy, then we know Bebe's a Spy.

This plan has more risk, but a far larger payoff. If you have exiled a Spy, you know for sure who the next Spy is.

Here's what threw Jack off:

According to my plan, if you have exiled a Citizen, you have to start over from scratch. OK, that sucks.

Jack's plan has the benefit of confirming a citizen if you don't catch a Spy. However, as we saw in the Trina/Anneliese case, that type of benefit is only temporary. The Spies can imprison the confirmed Citizen the next round, so you are right back where you started anyway!

So no, I don't think Jack was the smartest player in the game. I think that his heart was in the right place and I think he tried really hard, but he put himself out in the open too much and exiled so many citizens that he might as well have been an Honorary Spy. Same for Anneliese. She and Jack were largely responsible for the Citizen exiles in votes 3, 3.5, 4, and 6, which were all key exiles.

IQ wise, yes, Jack and Anneliese are quite intelligent. But gamewise? No. Their actions and the results they yielded count significantly more than their intentions.

[Bebe]

We're doomed.

We panicked at the last minute and hoped Bruce would come through for us. But I know he didn't.

The vote will be:

All 6 citizens vote Tenchi

All 5 Spies vote Arthur

Everyone's at exile - so no tiebreaker.

We're doomed.

[Tenchi]

Sometimes I forget to read Spy Confessionals. I miss out on the great stuff.


For me, Bebe was not only the challenge hero, but she was the friendliest person out there. I do not know how she gets everyone to trust her (getting Trina's trust early on was big; manipulating Jack not to vote for Bebe, was amazing, if not magic). Strategy wise, I think she gave a lot of contribution (you come up with great ideas when either Jessica and I run out).

[Reicheru]

Yeah, we all loved Bebe. (Well - ok - I was close to hating her towards the end because she WOULD NOT STOP BULLSHITTING ME, even when I practically called her and Jessica out at Jack's exile. But nonetheless, we all love Bebe. ) And I still have trouble believing she's played by Adriana. There's a HUGE personality difference there. It's like comparing a man-eating rabid bear to a cute and energetic little puppy who likes playing in the snow and hugs.

I think it just goes to show that the perceived deliberately unhelpful or obstructive people (Frank from Spies 1; Derek, Nicole, Rodney, Davoni, Adriana and Jenna from Spies 2; Arthur, Matthew, Taylor and Jennipher from Spies 3) are never spies. Personally I could never understand the suspicion that rested on the heads of Frank, Nicole, Davoni - I would say Rodney because there's no way I would have suspected him after the first few rounds of Spies 2, even though I did when I was a citizen in the opening round - Arthur and Jennipher. It made no sense to me that people were so set on them being spies.

I think - and I assume that DC would agree with me here - that it's a bad way to play the game to a certain extent. It lets you survive longer, but limits your influence on events because people might mistrust or dislike you. A longer lasting game is a failure for the citizens because it's the spies who are playing to "survive", not the cits. Rodney from S2 especially springs to mind here - early on he had perhaps the best perception of anybody, putting Tyson, Leo and Alison very high up on his spy lists, but only a few people (Nicole and Davoni in particular) really trusted him. Jennipher was in much the same position. A lot of her ideas were right, but very few people trusted her enough to listen to them, and those who did she didn't trust herself.

I'd be really fascinated if any spy in S4 can pull off the "unhelpful" strategy. The trouble is that it limits your influence so much, and also gets you suspected a lot. (Again, I don't understand this, but when I get it wrong it's more likely to be people like Miles or Carrie than Jennipher or Arthur.) Personally I wouldn't try it, and I doubt anyone else would, but it'd be interesting to see.

[Reicheru]

bebe said:

I figured the smart thing to do would be post my analysis of the other players ASAP. I didn't expect it to come out so heavily against Reicheru, but when I slipped into Bebe mode, she suspected her. This whole "in character" thing is not really my deal. It's too weird.

Well I was already about as sold on you as I was on anybody (which is not much at all.) The only thing that did it for me was that you suggested that you knew who I was in real life. I knew by then who you were and thought that if you'd really tagged me as Yves - which I was pretty sure you had - there's no way you would suspect me as a citizen, because (disregarding the huge secret as to how Sam chooses his spies) I didn't think there was any way you would seriously consider the same person would be a spy twice in a row. That and the Gift Giver thing are the kind of things that I pick up on easily. Unfortunately they didn't help the cits in this case!