EPISODE 7: BACKDRAFT.

[Reicheru]

I've just had a huge conversation with Bebe. I still think the odds are she's a spy, but at this point, we're probably doomed. Jordan didn't vote last exile. Without his vote in this one, we can't possibly win.

[Reicheru]

Anyways... I was going to do this after imprisonment, but there's just a small chance that I might be the one going. (Small because Taylor sticks out like a sore thumb as a likely choice. The spies won't keep her around now that confirmed as the Gift Giver, especially as she might have an extra-votes-type gift.) So since I've not really been commenting on the eliminated players up until now, I might as well do so while there's still time. Expect lots of apologies...

IMAGINE - I never got to plumb any of the boundless depths of your psyche. It was too short, man, too short.

JAKUB - I'm really, really, really, really sorry! Erm... I don't have much else to say. You just seemed like the best possibility at the time, and we had to choose SOMEONE.

LEENA - You weren't around much but you seemed really sincere. I'm sorry you didn't make it further.

TYLER - Everyone knows what I think of inactives, so I won't go there too much. I've never missed a challenge (although I now have excused myself from one... but I wouldn't have done it if there wasn't a limit on the number of players anyway...) and I don't commit to games I can't join. If it was just the time difference, I'd be more harsh on Sam for letting you in than I am on you not turning up. As it is, people HAD convos with you, and you couldn't even post them in your confessional. That's pathetic.

AUDREY - I didn't think much of your character description and I never really knew you. From what the others said there wasn't much to know. I'm kinda sorry you never had the chance to prove them wrong, that's all I can say.

JUDITH - Belle... when I thought you were a spy, I arrogantly thought you were copying a lot of Tyson's tactics. In reality, I think I copied a lot of yours as a citizen, even down to not being very good at working out who the spies are! Far from doing the whole Gerta thing again, I lied my ass off in this game, and I learnt to do that from you. There isn't much that I can say to you that would excuse what I did, and the worst thing is that I couldn't even redeem myself afterwards by getting a spy or two... up to your exile, I wanted to lead the citizens to victory, but all I ended up doing was taking out an excellent citizen and a good friend in the game.

I wish you had stayed and I had gone, you would have made a far better job of this than I did without a doubt. And the thing I regret most was using accusations against you... that was completely against the spirit of the game. It was ugly. I'm more sorry about that than anything else.

SUJATA - Sorry you had problems, we could've used your help.

JENNIPHER - Sam said this was your first game. You did great. I'm glad I didn't play any part in exiling you and I wish I could have convinced people you were ok.

CARRIE - I should probably apologise to you for suspecting you wrongly, and for being a part of the group that exiled you. And to some extent I'm sorry, but in the end I think the way you played the game was - naive, shall we say... it made you vulnerable to that sort of thing. That said, when you really started playing, I liked you, and I hope you'll get into Spies 4 and learn to start kicking some ass in this game.

SHANE - my only regret with you is we didn't talk enough. What happened to you was a huge shame. There's a chance also that you saved me from imprisonment, and I'll thank you for that if you did, and apologise that I couldn't do more once I was saved.

TRINA - You had me going. And I appreciate you saving Jack, not that it did much good in the end. But WHY JORDAN?! First, his burg posts about the video made him look so much less spy-like, and second, if you're going to confirm someone, make it someone who can USE that confirmation... Bebe, for example. As it is, you lumbered us with the worst safe we could possibly have had.

ANNELIESE - Wow, what can I say? I think at the start of the game you were naive. And towards the middle of it you drove me NUTS. At one point you seriously came close to breaking me. But despite all that, I liked you loads, I think you were well-intentioned, and I was really sorry to see you go.

MILES - My instinct at the very beginning was right, and I ignored it. I even confirmed you had a role, and still exiled you... I'll save the apologies until I find out the details of that, because it strikes me that SOMETHING has got to be wrong there. It just wouldn't be fair on the spies for you to have the role Anneliese claimed that you had. That's why I thought you were a spy.

And finally JACK... You, also, drove me nuts at times. But I agree with every word Sam posted about you. I wish you could've been around at the finish, or at least seen one spy exiled.

That's all, folks.

[Reicheru]

Before I go off for the night... I've just seen Taylor's post. The one in which she calls Matthew an "idiot".

You know how I went around saying to everyone I wanted Anneliese to be imprisoned because she was such a backstabbing bitch? Well right now I honestly feel like that about Taylor for real. She is one of the most useless citizens in the entire fucking burg and all she ever seems to do is get people's backs up. Beyond her ability I can't think of a single thing she's contributed to this game. She's hardly ever around, and when she is, she does nothing except split the citizens apart. She's gotta know her time is practically up - most likely a day or two earlier than the rest of us even - and yet she chooses to spend it posting childish insults. Does she not get that our only bare hope is to PUT ASIDE OUR DIFFERENCES AND WORK TOGETHER?! Jeez, bitch about people in your confessionals, whatever, just not in public. Take a deep breath, swallow down your pride, and DEAL WITH IT.

I wondered in the first two spies games what would happen if a completely useless obnoxious semi-inactive player got themselves a role. I'm pretty damn sure it didn't apply to Monica, Sage, Soraya, Tyson, Jenna, Karl, Leo, Tiffany or even Rashma, but it's happened here. Step forward Taylor, take a bow. You suck.

[Reicheru]

So here's why we're losing this. There's an extreme lack of evidence pointing, for definite, one way or another. Let me give you an example:

spies3Matthew (10:22:26 PM): we need the words on #8
spies3Matthew (10:23:37 PM): A At 1993, The In 1975, ? ? ?
spies3Jessica (10:23:53 PM): yeah
spies3Jessica (10:23:59 PM): and 8 has our words?
spies3Claire (10:25:05 PM): we have 9
spies3Claire (10:25:16 PM): not 1

That's from Jessica's Team Beta chat log.

You notice there's about a two minute delay where NOTHING is said, nobody answers the question that Jessica puts forward. Now to me that seems kinda unnatural - what happened in those two minutes? But it could just be that everyone is silent.

Let's apply the same process to everyone else and look at the evidence for and against their being a spy.

ARTHUR - Against - is unhelpful, openly obnoxious, is the citizen's chief suspect. For - could be a double-bluff, the spies might bank on someone saying "Well X can't be a spy if he's at the top of the list, the spies would make sure he isn't there." Much like I have.

JESSICA - Against - confirmed as a citizen by Bebe. My instinct about Jess has said citizen all along. For - Bebe could be lying. My instincts have been wrong in at least three cases - Jakub, Judith and Carrie.

TENCHI - Against - is one of the most helpful citizens in terms of theories, etc. The "taunt board" seems to rule him out at least in the sense that he actively looked for people to vote Judith. For - all of his theories, so far, have been wrong. The Jack one has been ESPECIALLY wrong, and it is odd that he didn't see the huge flaw in it. The spies board may be deceptive, or I could just be reading it wrong.

BEBE - For - the spies would want one of their own to win the investigation. At least three spies and probably more were on hand to make sure this would happen. Against - she's a challenge demon. I'd expect her to put in a good showing.

BROOKS - For - was never in danger at those times. Was not investigated by Bebe on the advice of Bruce, Miles and Jack. Against - voted for by three strong spy suspects. Miles and Jack are citizens.

BRUCE - For - could be in this with Bebe to win the challenge. Maybe tried to influence her on who to investigate if she's not a spy. Against - does everything he can in the burg to call citizens to arms. Maybe a throwoff, but he looks genuine.

CLAIRE - For - Seems very quiet, doesn't give a lot away. Against - so were Carrie and Miles.

MATTHEW - Against - very unsocial, obnoxious, gets into an argument with Arthur. For - seems completely unaffected by depression following exiles. Could be role-playing with Arthur to make them look like they're not working together.

RAPHAEL - Against - supported Carrie. For - well, some spy had to!

You see what a problem we have here? Everything points both ways.

If I had to pick the spies now, I'd probably plump for Bebe, Bruce, Jessica, Matthew and Brooks. Possibly I'd replace Matthew or Brooks with Arthur or Tenchi to make it two-three instead of one-four. But it would still be a total guess. Bebe could be a citizen. Bruce could very likely be a citizen. I find it difficult to imagine there's at least three spies in the other two groups, and yet the group with no spies in it wins the investigation challenge, but I have to look at that possibility.

Nonetheless I think they've beaten us.

[Reicheru]

Brooks is a citizen. Damn.

And I THINK I KNOW WHO THE SPIES ARE. I can't believe it only just occurred to me.

In a unique situation like this, the spies actions should be fairly easy to predict. What they WANT is for one citizen - it doesn't matter who - to go. The trouble is, they can't push too hard for that citizen so that it becomes obvious. So what do they do?

I think they choose a citizen, someone who's fairly obviously suspected, but not someone who's been NAMED as a scapegoat. Someone like Matthew. In fact, someone EXACTLY like Matthew. Then, oh so subtly, they start inching us towards that person. Let's take a look:

BEBE: matthew - i think that when there are 5 spies everyone needs to fill a certain role and you fill both the inactive role and the crazy role.

TENCHI: On joining the challenge, if there is somebody to suspect there, it was the winning group of the challenge and Matthew and Brooks.

ARTHUR: I think I'm going to vote Matthew, like I was going to last round. He's a "whiny little asshole". Plus he and Claire made it known that he voted for her.

BRUCE: i agree, to me it seems that arthur, matthew, and brooks all have a high probability of being spies.

TENCHI: Both of you, please stop the drama. Its not really helping. For all we know, both of you is staging this. (Brooks and Matthew.)

(00:45:29) spies3Tenchi: THATS THE THING
(00:45:32) spies3Tenchi: about Matthew
(00:45:41) spies3Tenchi: did he EVER vote with a reason?

RAPHAEL: (22:28:15) spies3Raphael: I have been thinking about it a lot lately, and I am trying to come up with a post to post in the burg, but I am probably going to wait till after imprisionment to post it. But my top suspects right now are Matthew and Arthur

ARTHUR doesn't seem to fit... maybe he's being scapegoated? I've thought that all along... Or maybe the spies want him and Matthew EQUALLY suspected, so they can get a last minute push for Matthew.

The thing is, citizens are BUYING IT. Which causes problems because Taylor and Brooks have posted against Arthur and Matthew as well. We'll see who else does...

[Reicheru]

So we're looking at... BEBE. BRUCE. RAPHAEL. TENCHI. And who... JESSICA or CLAIRE? Probably. But most likely JESSICA.

GOD-DAMN.

Wait... Bebe wanted originally to investigate Brooks. Brooks is a citizen. Would she investigate a citizen, and confirm him, as a spy?

She might... therefore she could have done with Jessica too. Or Jessica could be a spy.

DAMN.

[Reicheru]

Just to make this clear:

spies3Tenchi: each of us will include Matthew, Arthur, Claire, Raphael and Brooks at least say... five times?

spies3Bruce: yes, or at least, suspicious in comparison to others. somebody (i believe bebe?) made a joke about claire being a spy, and her reaction was sort of noteworthy

spies3Anneliese: Anyway, some people really defended Judith...
spies3Anneliese: Matthew, Brooks, Claire, Trina a very little bit.

spies3Tenchi: I suspect Claire, Brooke, Judy and Jennipher.

Claire disagrees with me when I say Bebe and Tenchi are certain cits. She thinks Brooks is a cit when I think he is a spy.

spies3Matthew: Claire (starting t o have doubts), Bebe, Jack (possibly), Raphael (maybe), Bruce (still waiting on but will go along with it), Jessica

spies3Tenchi: is Arthur, Raphael, Claire, Matthew and Brooks are all Spies

During the bunker thing, Jessica practically disappears. She won't answer questions or appear online. Maybe she is scared she gives herself away?

spies3Jessica: Me, Arthur, Bruce, Taylor, Trina, Jack, and you were told the word
spies3Jessica: according to anneliese
Reicheru: So Arthur or Bruce...
spies3Jessica: I w as thinking arthur

spies3Jessica: well its actually werewolf where I play
(Jessica is an experienced Spies player)

That's it. It's Jessica, Bebe, Bruce, Tenchi and Raphael.

HOLY MOTHERFUCKING SHIT!

[Reicheru]

Damn, there's STILL another possibility.

Claire instead of Raph?

Unlikely, but it's possible... I'll try and work it out tonight.

[Reicheru]

It's Raphael. I'm sure, now. Tenchi didn't want to go for him, he wanted to go for Claire instead.


Regarding Arthur:

BRUCE: As a subnote, WE VOTED ARTHUR AS THE MOST SUSPICIOUS PERSON IN THE DAMN BURG! WHY THE HELL ARE YOU ALL TAKING HIS ADVICE!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
You're a spy in my mind, care to tell me why I should change it?

BEBE: arthur - you said that you thought that miles, me, reicheru, jack, shane, anneliese, and jessica were spies and you wanted us all gone. well to me, everyone but reicheru on that list is a confirmed citizen, which means you gave me a list of 5 citizens to go after (the other 2 were me - i can't go after myself - and reicheru, and i don't know what reicheru is). you also wanted everyone to tell you their role and the latest rounds of people to go have all had roles. so that is fishy. on the other hand, you stood up for me to jack which i appreciate x 100 and all you had to do was sit back and let jack eat me alive for an easy exile. so i am 35-65 on you.

(Way to stab your "defender" in the back, Bebe!)


TENCHI: looking on Arthur as a Spy I can see two theories:

1. He's too dumb to be a spy.
2. He's a spy playing dumb with me.

Which can ALSO be said to Brooks, Matthew, Claire and Raphael (which if these five are ALL spies I will fuckin' flip over).

The only thing I doubt with these five is that they NEVER gave any SOLID theory or case as to who are the Spies. Now THAT in itself is something to note.

Matthew was posting FALSE clues and hints and trying to fool everyone on chat
Brooks hoarded a piece to make one team not win


BRUCE on Raphael: Claire also very subtly but adamantly defended you from Jack. Would you care to explain that, too?


TENCHI on Matthew: DO NOT ASK TO BE IMPRISONED. You're just looking bad in my book. This late in the game, it really doesn't work. Why? Because the confirmed citizens will be Imprisoned (obviously) and only Spies have the HUGE guts to say so. Taylor already said this.


TENCHI: What would make this theory valid? Create a list of your top five spies, Im sure it will contain three/four of Arthur, Brooks, Matthew, Claire and Raphael. That's why we haven't been able to catch a spy.

[Reicheru]

Reicheru: bebe in particular... I just have very strong feeling that she can be trusted, yet everyone seems to suspect her.
Reicheru: And nobody seems to have adequate reason for it... I just find it suspicious.
spies3Raphael: I think that people suspect because she seems to have some sort of conection with everyone. Like she gets along with them and seems to "get in good" with them, sort of speek. But I personally do not suspect her. She is not that high up on my list.
Reicheru: Hai.
Reicheru: I think you are wise.
Reicheru: Arthur too... I feel the spies would never let one of their own get put on the top of that suspect list.
Reicheru: They have a third of the votes, how could it happen?
spies3Raphael: I am not sure. But maybe we should also look at it as, maybe they wanted to play reverse phsycology on us or something. You never really know.


spies3Jessica: I was thinking arthur since he seems to be avoiding voting in the majority
spies3Jessica: and then critisizing those who do


Reicheru: And I do not think Arthur is a likely spy.
spies3Jessica: I DO think arthur id
spies3Jessica: is


spies3Arthur: I still think it's Bebe or Miles

spies3Arthur: Judith says that maybe Carrie is a just a pawn, and perhaps Bebe is a spy.

spies3trina: tenchi told me it may be miles or arthur

[Reicheru]

BRUCE: Tenchi, why is it that you went SO hard after Jack to explain himself on the "Coming Clean" thread, but NOT after Arthur? It would seem to me that from a citizen's perspective, both of them had an equal chance of being spies, and yet you never even addressed Arthur in any way. Why would you fight so hard to bring Jack down but ignore Arthur completely, when he was just as suspicious in regards to saying things that he couldn't prove?

BEBE: tenchi - you have been trying hard to look like a real citizen, like brucie. well, i suspect brucie and i suspect you. you and reicheru were thick as thieves and then had a fall out so you appeared to be different sides and i think that was a coverup in case one of you was revealed to be a spy everyone else would think the other was not a spy. also in regards to you two appearing to be apart, you were very vocal in getting jack out which is something reicheru very vocally did not want. and when reicheru dropped out of the challenge you took her place.

[Reicheru]

OK, so I may have fucked up.

I told Tenchi not to target Brooks a full DAY before Bruce's post. Does that look like Bruce and Tenchi are in league together? Or is Tenchi sacrificing his fellow spy?

In any case, Tenchi and Bruce were almost certainly covertly looking at that chatroom created by Taylor. That's evidence right there. But who invited them in? Claire or Arthur? Claire seemed the most defensive... Arthur followed it up.

Could Tenchi have faffed up and forgotten what I'd told him about Brookes yesterday? Not have told Bruce? Or simply not believed me?

[Reicheru]

But beyond that... it was JESSICA who set that trap. How in hell's name did Bruce come to fall into it?

There's something deeper going on here.

It's a bloody odd time for Tenchi and Jessica to decide to "do a Tyson", that's for certain. So what... Jessica and Bruce aren't both spies, Tenchi and Bruce aren't both spies? Yet Claire or Arthur, Tenchi and Bruce HAVE to be spies?

What's going on?

[Reicheru]

OK, let's put it this way: who COULD be spies?

Bebe, Bruce, Arthur, Matthew, Tenchi, Raphael, Jessica, Claire.

Two people were invited to the new forum by someone, probably a spy. Taylor, myself, Arthur, Brooks and Claire are there. Assuming Taylor is not lying about her investigation, Brooks is cleared. This means either Arthur or Claire is a spy.

The only two online at that time were Bruce and Tenchi. Both are spies. (Or was one invited innocently? Would a spy blow their cover that way? Nope.)

So Bruce is a safe vote.

Say it's Claire or Arthur or both with Tenchi and Bruce... who else?

First of all, let's say Jessica is NOT a spy.

Let's say it's Claire who forgets visitors to proboards sites can be logged.

Let's also say that Matthew, for reasons already given, is not a spy.

We have three spies: Arthur / Claire, Tenchi, Bruce. And two more: Bebe, Claire / Arthur or Raphael.

I still say the non-spy is Arthur... which means that instead of JESSICA being the spy, it's actually CLAIRE.

Claire, Tenchi, Bruce, Bebe, Raphael. PLEASE tell me that's right!

Or, because Claire has been suspicious of Bebe and Tenchi, does that mean ARTHUR, Tenchi, Bruce, Bebe, Raphael?

OK, so what if Jessica is a spy...

Jessica, Bebe, Claire / Arthur, Tenchi, Bruce? Is that possible?

So Jessica and Tenchi conspired to get Bruce eliminated to save themselves? Wow...

I'll think about this one.

[Reicheru]

CLAIRE WARNED THE OTHER SPIES THAT I AND OTHER CITIZENS WERE ON TO THEM.

That's what's going on.

They decided to sacrifice one of their own as a result of this.

Jessica had already decided on the investigation though... was that before or after my PM? Almost certainly before.

[Reicheru]

So assuming the spies got hold of one of my PMs... what would they do? Take out one of their own in a way that cleared as many of them as possible.

Unfortunately one of them made a mistake and invited Tenchi and Bruce to a forum where every visitor is recorded.

TENCHI and JESSICA look innocent. Therefore they probably aren't. Can I be sure about Jessica though?

BRUCE is the sacrificial lamb. He's gone to guarantee the spies a victory.

CLAIRE or ARTHUR is the traitor within the citizen alliance.

That leaves BEBE or RAPHAEL as the last spy... most likely it IS one of them... it has to be BEBE if Jessica is a spy.


OK... I need to confirm whether CLAIRE or ARTHUR is the traitor in the citizen alliance.

Is there any way Jessica might not be a spy? Doubt it... I think my reasoning is sound there. I think she and Tenchi have been partners from the start. The only question is whether Arthur was in on it too.

[Reicheru]

So that's it. TENCHI is the target tonight, once again an original player.

How confident am I that we'll catch a spy? Not very. Tenchi's not pointing out the flaw in his own "Jack" theory, or being to obsessed to notice it, fits in as well with the "idiotic citizen" idea as it does with the "clever spy" one. Honestly, I would rather have gone with Bebe... although I'm even uncertain on her.

Guess we'll find out.

[Bebe]

Damn impressed with your analysis, David. Mad props.

[Jessica]

Yeah, seriously. I was scared reading it even though the game is long over.

[Reicheru]

<bitter> Yep, my identification of Bruce and clearing of Claire (who persuaded Bruce to vote Arthur, quite possibly because of the way he'd been ostracized due to Jessica's "trap" and my identification of him as a spy to the four other citizens) really helped the game along. </bitter>

Seriously though... it was ok for a last-ditch effort... but I should've known much earlier. Hell, a monkey could've done better at this point. Carrie and Jennipher were both really accurate in their suspicion lists, for example, and they barely lasted half the game. The thing is, I said in an earlier confessional that I didn't think the clues were there because the spies were too good to let them get out. The evidence against Bebe, Tenchi and Jessica not withstanding (and let's face it, however much I suspected them at the end, I couldn't do anything about it) I think this was correct. We had nothing to go on. I still think five spies turned out to be one too many in what was essentially, thanks to the twist, a 22-man game; but I also agree with Sam that we COULD have won. It was bloody hard, but we could have. We just got owned.

And on that slightly sour note, I'll end what's probably going to be my very last confessional by thanking Sam for an excellent game (Spies 1 kicked ass even more IMO, but this was far better than S2!)and look forward to following Spies 4. G'night!

[Claire]

you know i honestly didn't give the board to the other spies and i didn't post the PM either...