Post by Claire on Jun 9, 2007 16:28:23 GMT -5
Konichiwa citizens. For that, Arthur Brooks Claire Matthew and Taylor, is what you are. In a moment I explain how I know none of you are spies.
But first of all I ask each of you to share this with NOBODY outside of that group. Please believe me when I say I genuinely believe that Arthur, Brooks, Claire, Matthew and Taylor are all citizens. I know that some of us have personality conflicts in the past. This we must put behind us now. We must work together. We can still win this.
I have, as you know, attempted to lead the citizens. Especially early on. Solely because of my incompetence Judith is exiled, while I at least contribute to the exiling of others like Carrie, Miles and Jakub. In short, I do a terrible job as a citizen.
When Judith goes, I suffer a crisis of confidence. I become withdrawn and afraid to lead. I do not want to take responsibility for any exile because I am afraid, all along, that I will be wrong again, and a truly worthy citizen may suffer because of it. Judith is close friend of mine, yet I stab her in the back in the worst possible way. So maybe it is mere cowardice that causes me to stop pushing for spies and start bandwagoning, but can you blame me given what happens with Judith?
When I come into this game, I think I know it better than anyone else. Other citizens pay the price for my arrogance and stupidity. All I can say to them is that I am sorry, but I always have good intentions.
Well now someone needs to step up. The citizens time has come. Our only chance it to identify the spies in our midst and work together to get rid of them.
So let me first introduce you to your spies. And once I do this, I explain why it HAS to be them.
The first bunker word is SKEPTICAL. And while Anneliese says these words are not meant as clues, I find them interesting. Because each one seems to correspond well with at least one spy. In this case it is JESSICA - for who else has a profile that matches that word so well?
And what a spy she is. From the start, she is able to get into my confidence, Anneliese's confidence, many peoples confidence. She is not afraid to state opinions, especially at the start. Some might notice, as I have, that she becomes more withdrawn as the game goes on. Maybe she is intimidated by the suspicions that point at her. She is an experienced Mafia player, as she once accidentally lets slip to me:
spies3Jessica: well its actually werewolf where I play
Think back to the first exile. Jakub and Tyler both get five votes. Tyler is completely inactive, as everyone knows, and his votes are all penalties. Jakub (although the citizens do not know it then) could very well be a helpful citizen later on. If Tyler survives however, this means he is around for the second exile. In that case he is most likely to be exiled on penalties alone - which is in fact the case.
It is my contention, therefore, that either the spies would split their votes equally between the two, or they would give a majority vote to Jakub. They would not favor Tyler in their voting.
Jessica and I vote Jakub, and we are the only people left who do. Tenchi and Arthur vote Tyler. Based on this, it seems much less likely that BOTH Arthur and Tenchi are spies. Jessica, however, is almost certain.
There is another clue at the "bunker" controversy in Episode Three. Anneliese calls out me, Tenchi, Jessica and Jack, saying two of us have to be spies. (You see the irony here.) Tenchi, Jack and I look hard for alternative explanations to this, and eventually Anneliese admits she has made a mistake. Jessica, however, does very little. She stays offline and, despite confirming much later on that she has "forgotten" to post her word, does nothing to take suspicion off herself initially. Why? Because she is not certain how to "play" this.
Jessica is an experienced player and a natural choice as spy. She has played the odds, slipped under the radar when necessary, but always appeared helpful. She is the original spy.
The second bunker word is JUVENILE. The youngest players in the game are myself and TENCHI. He is your second spy.
I cannot find words enough to express how well Tenchi plays this game. His actions when accused by Anneliese in particular show how good he is. He does not stall or attempt to wait it out. He comes straight out and accuses Anneliese of being mistaken. He then gives her copies of his own "posts" that appear to prove that, in fact, he has posted invalidly due to ANNELIESE'S mistake. Even Anneliese, while acknowledging this does not clear him, is unsuspicious then, as she says to me. As for me, I am completely fooled.
Tenchi is a silver-tongued seducer with a heart of ice. Like Jessica, he is one of the best at integrating himself into alliances and creating an air of trust. On the two occasions that he goes after citizens, everyone seems to accept this as a genuine mistake - Jack and Judith.
And yet one thing about Judith remains unexplained. In the "taunts" thread there is a post there that says: "We will send the others to spread the Judith thing then." Now the only person who "sends others" to exile Judith, assuming it is her exile the spies refer to, is me - I send Jack, Anneliese and Tenchi. So this looks to me like a deliberate attempt to cast suspicion on me while clearing those who actually go out and organize votes against her: Jack and Tenchi. Jack is now proven a citizen. That leaves one person. Tenchi.
The third word is NEWCOMER. This can be applied to all three of the remaining spies at the time it is posted. While I think individually they are not up to the standard Tenchi and Jessica set, each of them is able to work in harmony with the others, a perfect team. Let us take a look.
BEBE is the third spy. Every time I talk to her, I feel I want to trust her, despite the facts. And those facts are damning. Take a look at the investigation challenge.
Three people of those left do NOT take part in this challenge: Raphael (who accidentally gets left out, and asks to be let in), Arthur, and myself. I am not a spy. So unless Raphael and Arthur are both spies, there are AT LEAST FOUR SPIES playing in the investigation challenge. These nine people, including at least four spies, are split into three groups. The people in the winning group then must compete against each other for the prize.
It is in the spies best interest, you see, to have at least one person in EVERY group. It is my belief that originally Raphael, who is not under much suspicion at that time, is intended to be one of them, and Tenchi means to sit out. However Raphael is accidentally excluded and I offer Tenchi my own place as I have to leave. The groups are: Tenchi Brooks Jack, Claire Matthew Jessica, and Bebe Bruce Miles.
Make no mistake: the spies want that investigation to fall into their hands. With four of them in the challenge, they have an advantage over the citizens. They can immediately share information with the purposes of getting THE ONLY GROUP WITH TWO SPIES IN IT - group Delta, with Miles Bruce and Bebe - to win. Bruce and Bebe can then cooperate with each other to freeze out Miles and win the final part of the challenge. This is their plan, and it goes without a hitch.
You must ask yourself: If there really are four or five spies in the challenge, would the spies let someone who is NOT a spy win? Jack has an advantage in the form extra puzzle piece, provided by the gift giver, and yet STILL loses. His impression is that everyone is being uncooperative. Apparently enough people are willing to cooperate with Bebe.
BRUCE is Bebe's partner. His moment of brilliance comes after Bebe has won the investigation. The two spies know that Jack and Miles want Jessica or Bebe investigated. This cannot be allowed to happen. So first Bruce manipulates the challenge as best he can so that Jack is "frozen out". (Jack himself thought this before he is exiled.) With help from Jessica and Tenchi, Bruce and Bebe's group win the challenge. Bruce then backs up his partner to the hilt, persuading Miles to cooperate with Bebe so that she can win investigation.
Finally, and most brilliantly, Bruce and Bebe suggest using the investigation on a "neutral", Brooks, knowing that Jack and Miles will not stand for it. They want JESSICA investigated. So Bebe - oh so reluctantly - investigates her own spy partner, and is pleased to clear her as a citizen. And when the question comes up later on, Bebe can say: "Miles and Jack stopped me from investigating Brooks and got me to investigate a citizen instead. That is really suspicious." And Bruce can back her up. It is a fantastic move by two spies.
Bebe admits that she has the know-how to make a video such as the spies "taunt". Bruce also has videographic knowledge, but plays it down. But while neither post in the thread Jordan makes about the video, Bruce now has no hesitation in thinking Claire is behind it.
The final spy is Raphael, and like others, he has his moment of brilliance. Voting for Tenchi when Tenchi himself has taken a three-vote penalty makes it look that much less likely that these two work together. And yet both of them know very well that Carrie is to be exiled - I myself, having little suspicion of Tenchi at the time - impress upon him how certain it is!
How Raphael is personally, I cannot say. I do not have enough contact with him. He remains very low under the radar and relies upon his fellow spies to take suspicion away from him. For that reason, I think he is the weakest link among the spies.
Now let us look at the evidence.
First, I make my apologies to Taylor, but I want to get this out. BROOKS has been cleared. Taylor herself gives a "gift" to Jessica that allows Jessica to investigate one person while Taylor is privy to that investigation. I suggest you ask Taylor how this works.
Now I am also cleared by Anneliese's "bunker", and Taylor is the Gift Giver. This leaves eight people: Matthew, Claire, Arthur, and five others.
At this point, the spies have to make sure one of them is not eliminated. The best way to do this is to subtly focus attention on a suspicious citizen, a scapegoat. The way to spot the spies, therefore, is to look for collusion. Who suspects who? Does anyone stand out as a possible "scapegoat"?
And the answer is yes, TWO people stand out. These people are Arthur and Matthew.
Let us take a look. The following are either posts in the Burg or pieces of conversation I have at various times.
Here is TENCHI discussing suspicions:
spies3Tenchi: each of us will include Matthew, Arthur, Claire, Raphael and Brooks at least say... five times?
BRUCE, early on, suggests Claire is a spy:
spies3Bruce: yes, or at least, suspicious in comparison to others. somebody (i believe bebe?) made a joke about claire being a spy, and her reaction was sort of noteworthy
TENCHI discusses his suspects:
spies3Tenchi: I suspect Claire, Brooke, Judy and Jennipher.
Here is a spy list by MATTHEW. Notice how many genuine spies are on it:
spies3Matthew: Claire (starting t o have doubts), Bebe, Jack (possibly), Raphael (maybe), Bruce (still waiting on but will go along with it), Jessica
TENCHI, at the time he and Raphael "suspect" one another. Throughout the game, Tenchi is quick to throw suspicion on Claire and Arthur. This seems to me significant.
spies3Tenchi: is Arthur, Raphael, Claire, Matthew and Brooks are all Spies
JESSICA puts suspicion on the only citizen remaining when the bunker is destroyed:
spies3Jessica: Me, Arthur, Bruce, Taylor, Trina, Jack, and you were told the word
spies3Jessica: according to anneliese
Reicheru: So Arthur or Bruce...
spies3Jessica: I w as thinking arthur
BRUCE highlights Arthur as a suspect in the Burg:
BRUCE: As a subnote, WE VOTED ARTHUR AS THE MOST SUSPICIOUS PERSON IN THE DAMN BURG! WHY THE HELL ARE YOU ALL TAKING HIS ADVICE!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
You're a spy in my mind, care to tell me why I should change it?
BEBE talks about the person who has "defended" her. I am sure you are grateful, Arthur, that she is so thankful towards you while stabbing you in the back!
BEBE: arthur - you said that you thought that miles, me, reicheru, jack, shane, anneliese, and jessica were spies and you wanted us all gone. well to me, everyone but reicheru on that list is a confirmed citizen, which means you gave me a list of 5 citizens to go after (the other 2 were me - i can't go after myself - and reicheru, and i don't know what reicheru is). you also wanted everyone to tell you their role and the latest rounds of people to go have all had roles. so that is fishy. on the other hand, you stood up for me to jack which i appreciate x 100 and all you had to do was sit back and let jack eat me alive for an easy exile. so i am 35-65 on you.
TENCHI casually repeats my Bebe-Bruce investigation challenge theory (maybe he thinks it would be suspicious if he does not do so). But look at what else he says:
TENCHI: looking on Arthur as a Spy I can see two theories:
1. He's too dumb to be a spy.
2. He's a spy playing dumb with me.
Which can ALSO be said to Brooks, Matthew, Claire and Raphael (which if these five are ALL spies I will fuckin' flip over).
The only thing I doubt with these five is that they NEVER gave any SOLID theory or case as to who are the Spies. Now THAT in itself is something to note.
Matthew was posting FALSE clues and hints and trying to fool everyone on chat.
Brooks hoarded a piece to make one team not win.
Notice Tenchi blames BROOKS for "hoarding". Jack blames BRUCE. This seems immensely significant to me, since Brooks is now cleared.
BRUCE does not do a great job of attacking Raphael in the Burg. It reads more like an attack on Claire:
BRUCE on Raphael: Claire also very subtly but adamantly defended you from Jack. Would you care to explain that, too?
TENCHI subtly throws suspicion on Matthew. Tenchi is a lot more subtle than Bruce!
TENCHI: DO NOT ASK TO BE IMPRISONED. You're just looking bad in my book. This late in the game, it really doesn't work. Why? Because the confirmed citizens will be Imprisoned (obviously) and only Spies have the HUGE guts to say so. Taylor already said this.
Now let's take a look at how Bruce and Bebe treat TENCHI in their "Calling out" threads:
BRUCE: Tenchi, why is it that you went SO hard after Jack to explain himself on the "Coming Clean" thread, but NOT after Arthur? It would seem to me that from a citizen's perspective, both of them had an equal chance of being spies, and yet you never even addressed Arthur in any way. Why would you fight so hard to bring Jack down but ignore Arthur completely, when he was just as suspicious in regards to saying things that he couldn't prove?
So does Bruce attack Tenchi here, or Arthur? And look at Bebe:
BEBE: tenchi - you have been trying hard to look like a real citizen, like brucie. well, i suspect brucie and i suspect you. you and reicheru were thick as thieves and then had a fall out so you appeared to be different sides and i think that was a coverup in case one of you was revealed to be a spy everyone else would think the other was not a spy. also in regards to you two appearing to be apart, you were very vocal in getting jack out which is something reicheru very vocally did not want. and when reicheru dropped out of the challenge you took her place.
Once again, this reads more like an accusation of me than of Tenchi.
Raphael on Bebe and Arthur:
Reicheru: bebe in particular... I just have very strong feeling that she can be trusted, yet everyone seems to suspect her.
Reicheru: And nobody seems to have adequate reason for it... I just find it suspicious.
spies3Raphael: I think that people suspect because she seems to have some sort of conection with everyone. Like she gets along with them and seems to "get in good" with them, sort of speek. But I personally do not suspect her. She is not that high up on my list.
Reicheru: Hai.
Reicheru: I think you are wise.
Reicheru: Arthur too... I feel the spies would never let one of their own get put on the top of that suspect list.
Reicheru: They have a third of the votes, how could it happen?
spies3Raphael: I am not sure. But maybe we should also look at it as, maybe they wanted to play reverse phsycology on us or something. You never really know.
Jessica on Arthur:
spies3Jessica: I was thinking arthur since he seems to be avoiding voting in the majority
spies3Jessica: and then critisizing those who do
Reicheru: And I do not think Arthur is a likely spy.
spies3Jessica: I DO think arthur id
spies3Jessica: is
More Arthur:
spies3Arthur: I still think it's Bebe or Miles
spies3Arthur: Judith says that maybe Carrie is a just a pawn, and perhaps Bebe is a spy.
spies3trina: tenchi told me it may be miles or arthur
And there's more:
BEBE: matthew - i think that when there are 5 spies everyone needs to fill a certain role and you fill both the inactive role and the crazy role.
TENCHI: On joining the challenge, if there is somebody to suspect there, it was the winning group of the challenge and Matthew and Brooks.
RUCE: i agree, to me it seems that arthur, matthew, and brooks all have a high probability of being spies.
TENCHI: Both of you, please stop the drama. Its not really helping. For all we know, both of you is staging this. (Brooks and Matthew.)
RAPHAEL: spies3Raphael: I have been thinking about it a lot lately, and I am trying to come up with a post to post in the burg, but I am probably going to wait till after imprisionment to post it. But my top suspects right now are Matthew and Arthur
If you want any further proof that Matthew and Arthur are SCAPEGOATS and not spies, look at Bruce's attacks on Matthew in the Burg. At this point I think Bruce is getting desperate.
So that is Bruce and Arthur, but why not Clare?
CLAIRE and I once have a discussion. I cannot post the whole thing but it is revealing. At the time I strongly suggest both Bebe and Tenchi are citizens. Claire disagrees, suspecting them both. She also disagrees with my opinion that Brooks could be a spy. Now while it is not impossible that one spy should suspect others, there seems no real reason to in this case. My impression is that Claire is genuine.
Another reason Claire is not a spy is because Bruce and Bebe are both fairly hard on her in their Burg posts - much harder than on Tenchi or Raphael, for example. By itself this means little (Bebe also suggests suspicion of her fellow spy Bruce), but taken with other evidence, I think it is significant.
And finally, I put a theory to Tenchi that Bruce, Raphael, Claire, Arthur and Matthew are all spies and covering one another up. I suggest that either Raphael or Claire should be targeted and Tenchi IMMEDIATELY points out that Raphael is not a worthwhile target. This seems to me to be conclusive.
So there it is. We are the citizen and Tenchi, Jessica, Bebe, Bruce and Raphael are the spies. If you want further proof of this, I suggest each of you ask one of my spies who they would prefer to go: Bebe or Claire? Bruce or Arthur? Raphael or Matthew? And see what they say. I will be surprised if you do not get the correct answer each time.
Whatever happens, DO NOT MENTION THIS PM TO ANY OF MY FIVE SUSPECTS. If anything, I would advise you all to go along with any suspicions they have of Arthur, Claire, Matthew or myself. One certain way to identify the spies is to tell them all that we vote Claire or Matthew, for example, and then make sure each one of us votes a spy - for example, Raphael. But this is VERY risky. If I am wrong about even one person, the spies will have six votes while we only have five.
Personally I would rather us all choose to go for one spy, and for each of us to confirm to the spies that we have picked a target of someone like Claire or Matthew, who is known to be under suspicion. This would confirm five spies instantly. But this depends on none of us being a spy and all of us voting for the same person. It is safer - although confirms less - if everyone insists on voting for a spy, for example Bruce, no matter what the spies themselves try to persuade us to do.
It is up to you. If you all think my theory is sound, I suggest that we go for it. We ALL tell the spies we will exile either Arthur, Matthew or Claire this round, when in fact all six of us should vote for one spy. If the vote is split 5-6 then we have five guaranteed spies. And if there is ever a time to "do or die", now is it.
Let me know what you think. Trust each other, and do not mention ANY OF THIS to any of the five people I have named as spies. Remember - to them, you must be suspicious of each other. It is only between the six of us that we can talk freely about the spies.
Finally Taylor, if you have any power to give away that is NOT extra votes, give it to a spy. It is imperative that if you should have a power that involves extra votes, a citizen should be able to get it. We cannot waste citizens who have not been given gifts on "investigations" or "matchings", leaving only spies to receive gifts that involve voting advantages.
Good luck to all of you.
Rei-chan.
But first of all I ask each of you to share this with NOBODY outside of that group. Please believe me when I say I genuinely believe that Arthur, Brooks, Claire, Matthew and Taylor are all citizens. I know that some of us have personality conflicts in the past. This we must put behind us now. We must work together. We can still win this.
I have, as you know, attempted to lead the citizens. Especially early on. Solely because of my incompetence Judith is exiled, while I at least contribute to the exiling of others like Carrie, Miles and Jakub. In short, I do a terrible job as a citizen.
When Judith goes, I suffer a crisis of confidence. I become withdrawn and afraid to lead. I do not want to take responsibility for any exile because I am afraid, all along, that I will be wrong again, and a truly worthy citizen may suffer because of it. Judith is close friend of mine, yet I stab her in the back in the worst possible way. So maybe it is mere cowardice that causes me to stop pushing for spies and start bandwagoning, but can you blame me given what happens with Judith?
When I come into this game, I think I know it better than anyone else. Other citizens pay the price for my arrogance and stupidity. All I can say to them is that I am sorry, but I always have good intentions.
Well now someone needs to step up. The citizens time has come. Our only chance it to identify the spies in our midst and work together to get rid of them.
So let me first introduce you to your spies. And once I do this, I explain why it HAS to be them.
The first bunker word is SKEPTICAL. And while Anneliese says these words are not meant as clues, I find them interesting. Because each one seems to correspond well with at least one spy. In this case it is JESSICA - for who else has a profile that matches that word so well?
And what a spy she is. From the start, she is able to get into my confidence, Anneliese's confidence, many peoples confidence. She is not afraid to state opinions, especially at the start. Some might notice, as I have, that she becomes more withdrawn as the game goes on. Maybe she is intimidated by the suspicions that point at her. She is an experienced Mafia player, as she once accidentally lets slip to me:
spies3Jessica: well its actually werewolf where I play
Think back to the first exile. Jakub and Tyler both get five votes. Tyler is completely inactive, as everyone knows, and his votes are all penalties. Jakub (although the citizens do not know it then) could very well be a helpful citizen later on. If Tyler survives however, this means he is around for the second exile. In that case he is most likely to be exiled on penalties alone - which is in fact the case.
It is my contention, therefore, that either the spies would split their votes equally between the two, or they would give a majority vote to Jakub. They would not favor Tyler in their voting.
Jessica and I vote Jakub, and we are the only people left who do. Tenchi and Arthur vote Tyler. Based on this, it seems much less likely that BOTH Arthur and Tenchi are spies. Jessica, however, is almost certain.
There is another clue at the "bunker" controversy in Episode Three. Anneliese calls out me, Tenchi, Jessica and Jack, saying two of us have to be spies. (You see the irony here.) Tenchi, Jack and I look hard for alternative explanations to this, and eventually Anneliese admits she has made a mistake. Jessica, however, does very little. She stays offline and, despite confirming much later on that she has "forgotten" to post her word, does nothing to take suspicion off herself initially. Why? Because she is not certain how to "play" this.
Jessica is an experienced player and a natural choice as spy. She has played the odds, slipped under the radar when necessary, but always appeared helpful. She is the original spy.
The second bunker word is JUVENILE. The youngest players in the game are myself and TENCHI. He is your second spy.
I cannot find words enough to express how well Tenchi plays this game. His actions when accused by Anneliese in particular show how good he is. He does not stall or attempt to wait it out. He comes straight out and accuses Anneliese of being mistaken. He then gives her copies of his own "posts" that appear to prove that, in fact, he has posted invalidly due to ANNELIESE'S mistake. Even Anneliese, while acknowledging this does not clear him, is unsuspicious then, as she says to me. As for me, I am completely fooled.
Tenchi is a silver-tongued seducer with a heart of ice. Like Jessica, he is one of the best at integrating himself into alliances and creating an air of trust. On the two occasions that he goes after citizens, everyone seems to accept this as a genuine mistake - Jack and Judith.
And yet one thing about Judith remains unexplained. In the "taunts" thread there is a post there that says: "We will send the others to spread the Judith thing then." Now the only person who "sends others" to exile Judith, assuming it is her exile the spies refer to, is me - I send Jack, Anneliese and Tenchi. So this looks to me like a deliberate attempt to cast suspicion on me while clearing those who actually go out and organize votes against her: Jack and Tenchi. Jack is now proven a citizen. That leaves one person. Tenchi.
The third word is NEWCOMER. This can be applied to all three of the remaining spies at the time it is posted. While I think individually they are not up to the standard Tenchi and Jessica set, each of them is able to work in harmony with the others, a perfect team. Let us take a look.
BEBE is the third spy. Every time I talk to her, I feel I want to trust her, despite the facts. And those facts are damning. Take a look at the investigation challenge.
Three people of those left do NOT take part in this challenge: Raphael (who accidentally gets left out, and asks to be let in), Arthur, and myself. I am not a spy. So unless Raphael and Arthur are both spies, there are AT LEAST FOUR SPIES playing in the investigation challenge. These nine people, including at least four spies, are split into three groups. The people in the winning group then must compete against each other for the prize.
It is in the spies best interest, you see, to have at least one person in EVERY group. It is my belief that originally Raphael, who is not under much suspicion at that time, is intended to be one of them, and Tenchi means to sit out. However Raphael is accidentally excluded and I offer Tenchi my own place as I have to leave. The groups are: Tenchi Brooks Jack, Claire Matthew Jessica, and Bebe Bruce Miles.
Make no mistake: the spies want that investigation to fall into their hands. With four of them in the challenge, they have an advantage over the citizens. They can immediately share information with the purposes of getting THE ONLY GROUP WITH TWO SPIES IN IT - group Delta, with Miles Bruce and Bebe - to win. Bruce and Bebe can then cooperate with each other to freeze out Miles and win the final part of the challenge. This is their plan, and it goes without a hitch.
You must ask yourself: If there really are four or five spies in the challenge, would the spies let someone who is NOT a spy win? Jack has an advantage in the form extra puzzle piece, provided by the gift giver, and yet STILL loses. His impression is that everyone is being uncooperative. Apparently enough people are willing to cooperate with Bebe.
BRUCE is Bebe's partner. His moment of brilliance comes after Bebe has won the investigation. The two spies know that Jack and Miles want Jessica or Bebe investigated. This cannot be allowed to happen. So first Bruce manipulates the challenge as best he can so that Jack is "frozen out". (Jack himself thought this before he is exiled.) With help from Jessica and Tenchi, Bruce and Bebe's group win the challenge. Bruce then backs up his partner to the hilt, persuading Miles to cooperate with Bebe so that she can win investigation.
Finally, and most brilliantly, Bruce and Bebe suggest using the investigation on a "neutral", Brooks, knowing that Jack and Miles will not stand for it. They want JESSICA investigated. So Bebe - oh so reluctantly - investigates her own spy partner, and is pleased to clear her as a citizen. And when the question comes up later on, Bebe can say: "Miles and Jack stopped me from investigating Brooks and got me to investigate a citizen instead. That is really suspicious." And Bruce can back her up. It is a fantastic move by two spies.
Bebe admits that she has the know-how to make a video such as the spies "taunt". Bruce also has videographic knowledge, but plays it down. But while neither post in the thread Jordan makes about the video, Bruce now has no hesitation in thinking Claire is behind it.
The final spy is Raphael, and like others, he has his moment of brilliance. Voting for Tenchi when Tenchi himself has taken a three-vote penalty makes it look that much less likely that these two work together. And yet both of them know very well that Carrie is to be exiled - I myself, having little suspicion of Tenchi at the time - impress upon him how certain it is!
How Raphael is personally, I cannot say. I do not have enough contact with him. He remains very low under the radar and relies upon his fellow spies to take suspicion away from him. For that reason, I think he is the weakest link among the spies.
Now let us look at the evidence.
First, I make my apologies to Taylor, but I want to get this out. BROOKS has been cleared. Taylor herself gives a "gift" to Jessica that allows Jessica to investigate one person while Taylor is privy to that investigation. I suggest you ask Taylor how this works.
Now I am also cleared by Anneliese's "bunker", and Taylor is the Gift Giver. This leaves eight people: Matthew, Claire, Arthur, and five others.
At this point, the spies have to make sure one of them is not eliminated. The best way to do this is to subtly focus attention on a suspicious citizen, a scapegoat. The way to spot the spies, therefore, is to look for collusion. Who suspects who? Does anyone stand out as a possible "scapegoat"?
And the answer is yes, TWO people stand out. These people are Arthur and Matthew.
Let us take a look. The following are either posts in the Burg or pieces of conversation I have at various times.
Here is TENCHI discussing suspicions:
spies3Tenchi: each of us will include Matthew, Arthur, Claire, Raphael and Brooks at least say... five times?
BRUCE, early on, suggests Claire is a spy:
spies3Bruce: yes, or at least, suspicious in comparison to others. somebody (i believe bebe?) made a joke about claire being a spy, and her reaction was sort of noteworthy
TENCHI discusses his suspects:
spies3Tenchi: I suspect Claire, Brooke, Judy and Jennipher.
Here is a spy list by MATTHEW. Notice how many genuine spies are on it:
spies3Matthew: Claire (starting t o have doubts), Bebe, Jack (possibly), Raphael (maybe), Bruce (still waiting on but will go along with it), Jessica
TENCHI, at the time he and Raphael "suspect" one another. Throughout the game, Tenchi is quick to throw suspicion on Claire and Arthur. This seems to me significant.
spies3Tenchi: is Arthur, Raphael, Claire, Matthew and Brooks are all Spies
JESSICA puts suspicion on the only citizen remaining when the bunker is destroyed:
spies3Jessica: Me, Arthur, Bruce, Taylor, Trina, Jack, and you were told the word
spies3Jessica: according to anneliese
Reicheru: So Arthur or Bruce...
spies3Jessica: I w as thinking arthur
BRUCE highlights Arthur as a suspect in the Burg:
BRUCE: As a subnote, WE VOTED ARTHUR AS THE MOST SUSPICIOUS PERSON IN THE DAMN BURG! WHY THE HELL ARE YOU ALL TAKING HIS ADVICE!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
You're a spy in my mind, care to tell me why I should change it?
BEBE talks about the person who has "defended" her. I am sure you are grateful, Arthur, that she is so thankful towards you while stabbing you in the back!
BEBE: arthur - you said that you thought that miles, me, reicheru, jack, shane, anneliese, and jessica were spies and you wanted us all gone. well to me, everyone but reicheru on that list is a confirmed citizen, which means you gave me a list of 5 citizens to go after (the other 2 were me - i can't go after myself - and reicheru, and i don't know what reicheru is). you also wanted everyone to tell you their role and the latest rounds of people to go have all had roles. so that is fishy. on the other hand, you stood up for me to jack which i appreciate x 100 and all you had to do was sit back and let jack eat me alive for an easy exile. so i am 35-65 on you.
TENCHI casually repeats my Bebe-Bruce investigation challenge theory (maybe he thinks it would be suspicious if he does not do so). But look at what else he says:
TENCHI: looking on Arthur as a Spy I can see two theories:
1. He's too dumb to be a spy.
2. He's a spy playing dumb with me.
Which can ALSO be said to Brooks, Matthew, Claire and Raphael (which if these five are ALL spies I will fuckin' flip over).
The only thing I doubt with these five is that they NEVER gave any SOLID theory or case as to who are the Spies. Now THAT in itself is something to note.
Matthew was posting FALSE clues and hints and trying to fool everyone on chat.
Brooks hoarded a piece to make one team not win.
Notice Tenchi blames BROOKS for "hoarding". Jack blames BRUCE. This seems immensely significant to me, since Brooks is now cleared.
BRUCE does not do a great job of attacking Raphael in the Burg. It reads more like an attack on Claire:
BRUCE on Raphael: Claire also very subtly but adamantly defended you from Jack. Would you care to explain that, too?
TENCHI subtly throws suspicion on Matthew. Tenchi is a lot more subtle than Bruce!
TENCHI: DO NOT ASK TO BE IMPRISONED. You're just looking bad in my book. This late in the game, it really doesn't work. Why? Because the confirmed citizens will be Imprisoned (obviously) and only Spies have the HUGE guts to say so. Taylor already said this.
Now let's take a look at how Bruce and Bebe treat TENCHI in their "Calling out" threads:
BRUCE: Tenchi, why is it that you went SO hard after Jack to explain himself on the "Coming Clean" thread, but NOT after Arthur? It would seem to me that from a citizen's perspective, both of them had an equal chance of being spies, and yet you never even addressed Arthur in any way. Why would you fight so hard to bring Jack down but ignore Arthur completely, when he was just as suspicious in regards to saying things that he couldn't prove?
So does Bruce attack Tenchi here, or Arthur? And look at Bebe:
BEBE: tenchi - you have been trying hard to look like a real citizen, like brucie. well, i suspect brucie and i suspect you. you and reicheru were thick as thieves and then had a fall out so you appeared to be different sides and i think that was a coverup in case one of you was revealed to be a spy everyone else would think the other was not a spy. also in regards to you two appearing to be apart, you were very vocal in getting jack out which is something reicheru very vocally did not want. and when reicheru dropped out of the challenge you took her place.
Once again, this reads more like an accusation of me than of Tenchi.
Raphael on Bebe and Arthur:
Reicheru: bebe in particular... I just have very strong feeling that she can be trusted, yet everyone seems to suspect her.
Reicheru: And nobody seems to have adequate reason for it... I just find it suspicious.
spies3Raphael: I think that people suspect because she seems to have some sort of conection with everyone. Like she gets along with them and seems to "get in good" with them, sort of speek. But I personally do not suspect her. She is not that high up on my list.
Reicheru: Hai.
Reicheru: I think you are wise.
Reicheru: Arthur too... I feel the spies would never let one of their own get put on the top of that suspect list.
Reicheru: They have a third of the votes, how could it happen?
spies3Raphael: I am not sure. But maybe we should also look at it as, maybe they wanted to play reverse phsycology on us or something. You never really know.
Jessica on Arthur:
spies3Jessica: I was thinking arthur since he seems to be avoiding voting in the majority
spies3Jessica: and then critisizing those who do
Reicheru: And I do not think Arthur is a likely spy.
spies3Jessica: I DO think arthur id
spies3Jessica: is
More Arthur:
spies3Arthur: I still think it's Bebe or Miles
spies3Arthur: Judith says that maybe Carrie is a just a pawn, and perhaps Bebe is a spy.
spies3trina: tenchi told me it may be miles or arthur
And there's more:
BEBE: matthew - i think that when there are 5 spies everyone needs to fill a certain role and you fill both the inactive role and the crazy role.
TENCHI: On joining the challenge, if there is somebody to suspect there, it was the winning group of the challenge and Matthew and Brooks.
RUCE: i agree, to me it seems that arthur, matthew, and brooks all have a high probability of being spies.
TENCHI: Both of you, please stop the drama. Its not really helping. For all we know, both of you is staging this. (Brooks and Matthew.)
RAPHAEL: spies3Raphael: I have been thinking about it a lot lately, and I am trying to come up with a post to post in the burg, but I am probably going to wait till after imprisionment to post it. But my top suspects right now are Matthew and Arthur
If you want any further proof that Matthew and Arthur are SCAPEGOATS and not spies, look at Bruce's attacks on Matthew in the Burg. At this point I think Bruce is getting desperate.
So that is Bruce and Arthur, but why not Clare?
CLAIRE and I once have a discussion. I cannot post the whole thing but it is revealing. At the time I strongly suggest both Bebe and Tenchi are citizens. Claire disagrees, suspecting them both. She also disagrees with my opinion that Brooks could be a spy. Now while it is not impossible that one spy should suspect others, there seems no real reason to in this case. My impression is that Claire is genuine.
Another reason Claire is not a spy is because Bruce and Bebe are both fairly hard on her in their Burg posts - much harder than on Tenchi or Raphael, for example. By itself this means little (Bebe also suggests suspicion of her fellow spy Bruce), but taken with other evidence, I think it is significant.
And finally, I put a theory to Tenchi that Bruce, Raphael, Claire, Arthur and Matthew are all spies and covering one another up. I suggest that either Raphael or Claire should be targeted and Tenchi IMMEDIATELY points out that Raphael is not a worthwhile target. This seems to me to be conclusive.
So there it is. We are the citizen and Tenchi, Jessica, Bebe, Bruce and Raphael are the spies. If you want further proof of this, I suggest each of you ask one of my spies who they would prefer to go: Bebe or Claire? Bruce or Arthur? Raphael or Matthew? And see what they say. I will be surprised if you do not get the correct answer each time.
Whatever happens, DO NOT MENTION THIS PM TO ANY OF MY FIVE SUSPECTS. If anything, I would advise you all to go along with any suspicions they have of Arthur, Claire, Matthew or myself. One certain way to identify the spies is to tell them all that we vote Claire or Matthew, for example, and then make sure each one of us votes a spy - for example, Raphael. But this is VERY risky. If I am wrong about even one person, the spies will have six votes while we only have five.
Personally I would rather us all choose to go for one spy, and for each of us to confirm to the spies that we have picked a target of someone like Claire or Matthew, who is known to be under suspicion. This would confirm five spies instantly. But this depends on none of us being a spy and all of us voting for the same person. It is safer - although confirms less - if everyone insists on voting for a spy, for example Bruce, no matter what the spies themselves try to persuade us to do.
It is up to you. If you all think my theory is sound, I suggest that we go for it. We ALL tell the spies we will exile either Arthur, Matthew or Claire this round, when in fact all six of us should vote for one spy. If the vote is split 5-6 then we have five guaranteed spies. And if there is ever a time to "do or die", now is it.
Let me know what you think. Trust each other, and do not mention ANY OF THIS to any of the five people I have named as spies. Remember - to them, you must be suspicious of each other. It is only between the six of us that we can talk freely about the spies.
Finally Taylor, if you have any power to give away that is NOT extra votes, give it to a spy. It is imperative that if you should have a power that involves extra votes, a citizen should be able to get it. We cannot waste citizens who have not been given gifts on "investigations" or "matchings", leaving only spies to receive gifts that involve voting advantages.
Good luck to all of you.
Rei-chan.