Posted 26 minutes ago in Burg

[Judge Sam]

Shhhh.... this is top secret. Do not share or acknowledge you know of this with anyone in the game (not that you would be talking to them about the game anyway.) I think you guys can keep this secret so I thought I'd show you the latest drama.


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Jack
Jack
member is online
Joined: May 2007
Gender: Male
Posts: 2

Listen Up
« Thread Started on Today at 9:02pm »

I'm taking a huge risk by saying this, but we're down a bunch of Citizens and have yet to nail shut a Spy's coffin. If you suspect me, I don't give a flying crap. Read this without bias. Hear what I have to say, because I have a point. Yes, I do.

First, I'm going to apologize to the victim of this speech ahead of time. I don't know that you're a Spy, but this has to be done because it will ensure the most information is gained from this Exile.

I have, without any level of doubt, confirmed 3 other Citizens. One of them, Jordan, you all know of. This was the result of Trina's exile. I don't need to explain any further. I will not name the other two for their own safety, but they know who they are. There was yet another. Her name was Anneliese. Unfortunately, she is no longer with us.

With these three other Citizens, I have narrowed down my unconfirmed list to 10 players. I do not ever remove a name from there unless I am 100% certain that they are a Citizens.

Now, we know we have 5 Spies. That gives ME a 50% shot at hitting a Spy. Unfortunately, the problem now lies with gathering support. I cannot say with any certainty that one person is a Spy. However, I like the statistics behind knowing that half the people on my suspect list is a Spy. So I will pick the person who I believe will give off the most information regardless of the result of the exile, while still hoping that they do indeed wind up being a Spy.

This person happens to be none other than Bebe. We saw that she was the one who used the investigation. Moreover, she has claimed to have gotten a Citizen as a result. But what good does this do to anyone who is unsure of her alignment? I know I am not the only one who has had suspicion for Bebe in the past, but any level of suspicion is enough for me to be dissatisfied with such a claim. It would be different with a Spy result, simply because it would be foolish for either a Spy or Citizen to lie about such a result. That investigated player, in that scenario, would be a Spy without a doubt. However, there is a large level of uncertainty that I feel with the claim that Jessica is a Citizen, and people who will blindly follow it are doomed to fall for such a trap in the future.

So what do I propose? Sadly, to exile Bebe. Yes, this is an extremely bold move on my part, because I will be a top priority target next episode if Bebe winds up being a Citizen. However, I offer you two scenarios that may come about from this :

1) Bebe is Exiled and winds up being a Citizen.

Downside - We lose a Citizen. However, from my perspective, there is a 50% shot of that in any event. I am sure it is an even worse shot for those of you who have no idea who is who. So this is a rather STANDARD downside that will come about regardless of what Citizen may wind up being Exiled.

Upside - We gain the 100% certainty that Jessica is a Citizen. Bebe, as a Citizen, would have no reason whatsoever to lie about Jessica's alignment. For me, this cuts the suspect list down to eight, one confirmed being Jessica, and one being Bebe, providing 63% shot of hitting a Spy in the next Episode.

2) Bebe is Exiled and winds up being a Spy.

Downside - We don't know whether or not Jessica is a Spy or a Citizen. If Bebe is a Spy, she may have "investigated" Jessica and called her a Citizen, even though she WAS a Citizen, in hopes that we target her for Exile this episode. If that were the case, Bebe would wind up looking much more innocent because she was truthful in her "investigation". The other scenario is that Jessica really is a Spy and Bebe called her a Citizen falsely, for obvious reasons. Unfortunately, there is no way for us to tell which scenario Bebe chose, because there are advantages for her in either case.

Upside - We get rid of one of the Spies! Need I say more?


I simply ask that you all follow me on this one. I will nearly certainly be gone next Episode. If Bebe winds up being a Spy, I will almost certainly be targeted for Imprisonment next episode because I am catching on to a lot of things. If she's a Citizen, I won't be surprised if I am exiled in Episode seven.

Regardless, for now, you all need to ask yourselves why I would put myself out there to do this. Why would I do this as a Spy? To get one more Citizen rid of? There are no bandwagons forming just yet, so why would I do this instead of just going with the flow as the Spies have obviously been doing for the past five episodes? Ask yourself this, then rethink what other alternatives we have. We will gain something from exiling Bebe regardless of what the outcome is.


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What do you think? A smart/stupid plan? Could he even get it to work if he wanted to? Or is he just a Spy scared of what was going to happen?

[Judith]

Finally, double the days I stayed in the game, somebody listens to this old woman! Great plan for the citizens, risky move for my dear Jack.

[Trina]

Very risky plan. If Bebe does end up being a spy, it guarantees Jack being imprisoned. I feel this was a really really bad move only in teh part that he made his acknowledgement of Bebe being a spy so open.

The scenario I was hoping for was that the gorup Anneliese formed, Jordan, Raphael, Taylor, Jack would target Miles and get enough support to get them out, yet at the same time, show that those who votedf or Miles, in the event that he is a spy, are all confirmed citizens and will lead others to believe them in the future.

I fear that even Taylor will not vote for Bebe because Taylor stupidly told Bebe of her power. Tsk tsk...poor poor taylor if Bebe is a spy.

[Carrie]

Considering that both Bebe and Jessica are spies, I'd say it's a damn good idea. People have been suspicious of Bebe for a while (see above) and now she's apparently making claims of having the power to investigate...I don't think Jack will have too much trouble getting people to vote Bebe.

[Trina]

And there's enough evidence to support Bebe being a spy since...

1. I was not imprisoned until as of late and I was one of the most "confirmed" citizen in the game and had no suspicions. This was mainly a result of Bebe and I being good friends. (and if she is a spy, i still like her lol)

2. Bebe's push for Judith.

3. Bebe's knowledge of the bunker word and after the knowledge, the bunker was destroyed.

[Trina]

And yes who can we expect to support Jack?


Jordan
Raphael
Reicheru
Claire

are the four people I am positive will help Jack.

Tenchi
Arthur

are their own crew. Hopefully they stop thinking for a sec Jack is a spy and help him.

Brooks I think will help Jack because he got in a huge argument with Bebe earlier in the game.

I'm afraid Taylor may not because she trusts Bebe but she's 50/50. I think she probably will in the end.

Matthew is probably on his own and make random accusations. He's dumbtard.

That leaves the spies

Miles
Jessica
Bebe
Bruce


There's one more but I don't know whom.

So 5/15 people will vote Bebe.

4/15 are spies and will probably try to split up their votes...

6/15 reluctant people are up in the air. If Jack can gain the support of Tenchi and Arthur, then all will be good. But seeing as though Taylor has her suspcions on Arhtur or something, they may vote each other.

All the spies need is just 2 votes to side with them. I feel they can easily get that from 6/15 reluctant people.

I'm really hoping that Brooks and Matthew will gain the knowledge to support Jack and boost the chances of Bebe going with 7/15 votes and that should be plenty. All the other votes would probably be divided.

[Judith]

I would have to say, my dear, that those are probably 4 of the spies. Jessica and Miles were strangely tight in the original group without either saying they were. They just said they knew how the other was voting. Odd much!?

I would say the last spy is definitely Tenchi/Raphael, I could say Tenchi because he did defend Bebe and Miles when I've asked about them, and his sudden out-to-get-Jack attitude was strange. He also wanted me out as soon as I wanted Bebe out (at least he was more strong on voting me). I will say Raphael because of the personable card both Miles and Raphael seemed to play. Acting too nice and too clueless! His vote for me was rather strange, too (at least from what the dear had told me!)

[Jennipher]

When I was exiled, Jessica seemed surprised to me that Miles had voted for me, and if they were both spies, wouldn't Jessica known how Miles was voting or that it was for me? Was she playing dumb, and why would she not have voted for me as well? If I was going, would it really have mattered if I knew if she was a spy or not? Her voting with Miles, would that have been apparent to others that she was a spy. At that time, no one I know of was suspecting Miles. He was really flying low UTR. Just my two cents....

[Judge Sam]

Things were not looking good for the plan last night. Everybody who was online thought it was dumb and tried to change people's minds. That is until brave hero Bruce stands up and gives a rousing speech for the Spies history books:

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Bruce
Bruce


Joined: May 2007
Gender: Male
Posts: 3

Re: Listen Up
« Reply #28 on Today at 1:09pm »

I'm usually not one to involve myself in these huge, overblown threads, which often turn out to be a twisted mess of confusion in which the spies are able to feast on our uncertainty as ravenous wolves feast upon a helpless deer, but it is late in the game; time is rapidly wasting away and we have to DO something or we are going to lose.

From what I am seeing both in this particular thread and from what I've seen and experienced around the Burg is interesting; Jack has consistently been very open and analytical of potential spy situations throughout the entire game. Now, as most of you know, Jack was atop of my spy list for quite some time, and it wasn't until mere minutes before the last exile that my mind changed. I won't go in to the exact details as to why my mind was changed; you'll have to trust me to a degree as to why that is, but Anneliese certainly trusted Jack throughout the entire game, and she lasted a long time. I can't imagine the current scenario playing out under the conditions of Jack being a spy, it isn't logical, and there is no reasonable way of explaining such a thing, which is why I choose to operate under the assumption that Jack is a citizen.

If Jack is a citizen, which we are assuming now, where does that leave us? It leaves us with an accusation that he has made, backed up by a logical and reasonable explanation. This is where I implore you, my fellow citizens, to listen closely! This game is ours for the taking, but if we want it, we have to FIGHT for it! This is not an individual game, it is a game of teams. If we can't work as a team, we WILL lose. The way I see it, it doesn't matter if you're imprisoned anymore, if it means that the Citizens win, then it's a justifiable sacrifice. Well, it just might be that we have to make a sacrifice tonight.

I like you, Bebe, you are truly a pleasure to talk to and if you ARE a citizen, then you are an asset to the Burg. But I hope that you can understand that you MUST go tonight, for you now hold the key to the entire game. You are linked to four other people in a tangled web that we just might find out is the web of spies. It is time for we, the insect citizens of the Burg to rise against the lurking spiders who snatch up our comrades during the night and end this conflict. If we are wrong, and you are one of us, I hope that you understand and accept that your exiling is a cold fact of life. In the late 1700's, men banded together and formed the United States of America under the assumption that they deserved to be FREE, that they would NOT accept the British tyranny over them. Well, many men DIED fighting for the rights to this great country today that so many of us live in and enjoy. Those men died knowing that they were being sacrificed for the good of everyone else. It is sad that they had to die, but that's just it; they HAD to die in order to create what we have today.

Arthur has adamantly defended Bebe and Jessica both here today. Are they all spies? Not necessarily, but it is SUSPICIOUS, and it's one of the VERY few leads we have now that could actually go somewhere. Ask yourselves this, how can Arthur, in his own words, say

Quote:
This whole scenario is a waste as neither Bebe or Jessica are Spies. Now, getting rid of you and you end up being a Spy has no downside for us at all.

? He made an ABSOLUTE statement, that Bebe and Jessica are NOT spies. How can he know that? He doesn't! He's either a foolish, duped citizen, or one of them - a spy - and I do not get the impression that Arthur is at all foolish, so that leaves us with one logical assumption that he could very well be a spy, if Bebe and Jessica turn out to be so, as well.

But it doesn't end there, oh no, there's more! Arthur, who is trying to arrange the exiling of Jack, so subtly planted a thought into all of your minds, which, if allowed to come into fruition, would certainly buy the spies enough time to put this game away. I believe he said something along the lines of Miles and Brooks being "cleared" if Jack was exiled and turned out to be a citizen. ...Does that make any sense whatsoever? Aside from Miles telling Jack about the results of his, mine, and Bebe's group decision regarding the investigation of Jessica, he has had very little suspicious linkage to Jack. Brooks? Why would he be cleared if Jack were exiled as a citizen? That makes absolutely no sense. Again, we come to the question; is Arthur a very foolish citizen or a very devious spy?

There you have FIVE people, linked precariously together by subtle yet VERY suspicious circumstances. I ask you, citizens of the Burg, can any of YOU give five people who are as dubiously linked together as these five? Can any of YOU tell me how exiling Jack, or ANYONE else for that matter, could potentially lead to the immediate capture of ALL of the remaining spies? I beseech you all, if you have ANY desire to win this game, then you MUST exile Bebe, not because you want to, but because you HAVE to! If you are not willing to do what must be done, then we all deserve to lose, which is precisely what we're on the verge of doing.

If Bebe is a citizen, we confirm another citizen, bringing us that much closer to narrowing down the list of possible spies. If Bebe is a spy, we potentially have ALL FIVE spies locked in for exiling. The risk of voting out Bebe the citizen PALES in comparison to the simply AMAZING and game-changing rewards in voting out Bebe the spy, if you can't see this, then you truly are a lost cause.

So ask yourselves this, tonight before voting. Do you WANT to win? Do you WANT to keep the citizens' streak of winning going? Or do you want to fail? Do you want to be the first group of citizens to LOSE in this series? I for one REFUSE to lose, and I will fight until my last days here to WIN. If that means a tough decision at Exile, then so be it.

I choose to exile Bebe tonight because it simply HAS to be done. I hope that you will all choose to do the same.

[Carrie]

Disappointed to hear that Jack's plan isn't going well, maybe this speech will move the helpless deer/insect Citizens to finally exile a spy. A lot of us losers supsect Bebe, Jessica AND Bruce....so are we wrong about Bruce or is he just trying to distance himself from Bebe/Jessica?

[Trina]

Wow....we may very well be wrong about Bruce lol. Dammit Bruce. Why did you have to make me so suspicious of you when you changed to Anneliese at the last minute ! grrrr.

Anyways,

this may actualy be a plan of Bruce's and whatever happens, hapepns. If he is out there targetting one spy it makes him less suspicious to be a spy in the end. I don't know. It's too hard but my suspicion for Bruce has gone down and Arthur rising. Let's just see what happens.

And damn the insect citizens. They annoy the hell out of me.

[Jakub]

that speech doesnt clear bruce in one way or another. regardless of what bebe is bruce could still be either. that being said, thats one hulluva speech on his part. props to him regardless of his motives.

that all being said, the civil war reference was a bit much...

[Carrie]

Civil War...Revolutionary War...whatever

[Jakub]

yeah im dumb, lemme alone...