Spy Theories here

[Judge Sam]

In most mafia games on the Internet there is one thread where people play. Everybody posts their thoughts on who is a Spy publically in the thread to see what kind of reaction people give to being accused and publically pool information as to how people act.


There's no reason we can't do that here. As always you are free to post your opinions in this thread or throughout this board, anywhere you want. In most cases, the more information that gets around only benefits the Citizens. Spread your suspicions! If everybody keeps all their ideas whispered behind closed doors, it's usually good only for Spies.


Who do you think is a Spy? Who do you think is acting like a Spy? Who do you think is a Citizen? Let's hear it, any one of you could be Imprisoned tomorrow so there's no need to be shy.

[Arthur]

Okay, I'll probably make myself a target, but the Citizens need to get something going. Right now, the people I suspect the most would be Jack, Judith, Carrie, and Shane. Certain things they've done, said, how they've acted, and things I've heard from other people are why I suspect them the most.

[Arthur]

Also, "bandwagoning" seems to be frowned upon, but when you've got so many people saying they suspect one person, I just think it's a good idea to go with what they say. Which is why I voted Carrie last time.

[Shane]

Arthur, could you go more in detail about why you suspect us four on being Spies?

I would love to know why you accuse me in particular, when we've had what? One conversations this entire game? So, please share. Thanks.

[Arthur]

We can all talk later in the Exile chat. I've only spoken to Bebe, Brooks, and Trina and Claire briefly. Perhaps I should have held off throwing out all my accusations until I've met everyone. But from our old group, you 4 are the ones I suspect the most.

[Jack]

I formulated a simple vote count summary for the three votes we've had(Episode 1, Episode 1 Revote, & Episode 2). I'll do the same for Episode three, provided that I'm not exiled.

~~Episode One : Vote Count~~
Tyler (5) : Tyler, Tyler, Tyler, Tyler, Tyler
Jakub (5) : Reicheru, Judith, Jessica, Miles, Leena
Jennipher (3) : Tenchi, Jack, Carrie
Reicheru (2) : Reicheru, Reicheru
Carrie (2) : Jakub, Anneliese
Judith (1) : Arthur
Tenchi (1) : Jennipher
Jack (1) : Shane
Not Voting (1) : Tyler

~~Episode One : Revote~~
Jakub (7) : Reicheru, Judith, Jessica, Miles, Leena, Carrie, Jennipher
Tyler (5) : Arthur, Jack, Jakub, Shane, Tenchi,
Not Voting (2) : Tyler, Anneliese

~~Episode Two : Vote Count~~
Tyler (12) : PENALTY(X12)
Carrie (5) : Anneliese, Judith, Jessica, Reicheru, Arthur
Judith (3) : Carrie, Shane, PENALTY
Jack (2) : Tenchi, Jennipher
Tenchi (1) : Jack
Shane (1) : Miles
Not Voting (1) : Tyler

[Taylor]

well, as that shows, just pointing out one observation that jessica, judith, and reicheru have voted together three times.

[Jack]

Ok, I'm tired of all this he-said she-said nonsense. I'm going to post what I know, and I don't care the consequences, because the way we're headed right now is on the path to disaster. I am 99% sure I know that one of three people is a spy, and am fairly certain that one of them isn't it. My saying this will put me at danger, but it needs to be made known.

First of all, I do not have a special ability. Sorry for getting your hopes up.

However, we are all aware that Anneliese has an ability. As far as she has told me, she is able to build a bunker as players post words in their confessionals. Keep in mind, she has also confirmed that she is also able to post the word in her confessional to put towards her bunker. Now, as she said in her other thread, she currently has 6 points put toward her bunker. That means that her word has been posted 6 times. She told me SHE posted it three times. I know I posted it one time, Tenchi has claimed to have posted it twice, and Reicheru has claimed to have posted it twice:

Anneliese : 3
Reicheru : 2
Tenchi : 2
Jack : 1

Whoa! Wait a minute! We have a problem, here! 3 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 8! Someone is lying. We all went back to make sure we posted the words. Spelling was correct, and we posted the words, so we said. So we know that one of these four people is lying. Either Anneliese has lied about her role, or someone is lying about posting the words.

To add an additional twist, Anneliese has said that if any spy posts the word, her bunker is destroyed. Clearly, that has not happened yet, otherwise I'd have heard about it by now. Why would a spy simply lie about posting the word, then? Perhaps because if her bunker was destroyed, we'd be able to figure out who was responsible. I don't know, but it hasn't happened.

So we're left with this possibility:

1) Anneliese is lying about her role
2) Jack is lying
3) Reicheru is lying
4) Tenchi is lying

As of last night, Anneliese, Tenchi, and I all three were settling on the idea that Reicheru was the culprit, because she had apparently coaxed Anneliese into going after Judith last episode. Reicheru said to Anneliese she was CERTAIN that Judith was a spy, but she wanted for Tenchi and I to go after her because Anneliese was "too valuable" to have suspicion cast upon. Well, lo and behold, Judith was not a spy.

But the Imprisonment today changed everything. Who was imprisoned? Nobody. But that isn't the big shocker. What Sam said, however, is. I'm not sure that I'm suppose to quote it, but it basically meant that NO imprisonment would be blocked for the rest of the game.

Whoa! Hang on... Hello, McFly? Isn't that what Anneliese's bunker was suppose to do? Block imprisonments? That's certainly what she told me. But now Sam is saying that that will not every happen, and I sure as hell hope Sam isn't a spy, otherwise we're all screwed.

Anyway, this has me baffled. To all of you, any four of us is the spy. I am 99.9% sure one of those three is a spy. I am 50-75% sure Tenchi is NOT the spy. It's a hit or miss with the other two, but as far as where they stand:

Reicheru thinks Tenchi is the spy.
Tenchi thinks Anneliese is the spy.
Anneliese thinks Reicheru is the spy
I think either Reicheru or Anneliese is the spy.

In my own defense, I gain nothing from making this public. I am not a suspect. As a Citizen, I gain the consistency of this story, and the inability for someone to twist my words. It's written in stone, and I want everyone to response to it HERE so we KNOW what you think, and so that no third-hand information can alter that.

Post away.

[Jack]

A point in Anneliese's defense: It is possible that her role allows her to block one person from being imprisoned, but it doesn't stop imprisonment altogether. So the spies would be notified that their imprisonment was blocked, but that they can choose someone else.

[Trina]

Jack I applaud you for your analysis but there's a key element you're missing. There were 5 people that Anne told, Jennipher and Jessica that you didn't include. Who is to say they didn't post as well. If that is the case, more than one person is lying.

[Bebe]

good post jack, thanks for that. you wrote it very clearly.

one other point:

we are assuming anneliese is telling the truth when she said "so far i have 6 points"

if she is lying about that, then all of the above is false and we are on a wild goose chase that she created.

i don't know what to think right now and this is making my head hurt.

[Tenchi]

I think what you said makes sense Jack, that the technicalities of Anneliese's ability could have just come down to a misunderstanding in wording.

I (or maybe I have discussed this with others) also have come about other possibilities where things could have gone wrong:

1. How to post the word was unclear. One of us could have posted the word wrongly (in another thread, spelling, aline in a thread, etc) that it didn't count.

2. Anneliese's posts do not count. But Annie made this clear that hers DO count.

3. Plus, Reicheru has told me of another vote count that could be possible.

Of course, I still believe that Annie could be lying because a) She is a Spy and/or b) She is trying to get as far in the game as possible (spies would not Imprison a lying Citizen).

Right now, Annie tells me that she is confirming details of her role with Sam and hopefully things would be in better light.

[Jack]

trina said:

Jack I applaud you for your analysis but there's a key element you're missing. There were 5 people that Anne told, Jennipher and Jessica that you didn't include. Who is to say they didn't post as well. If that is the case, more than one person is lying.

Jennipher hasn't spoken to me since we got into an argument during episode two. I'm not exactly prepared to take her word for anything. Jessica I haven't had the chance to speak to since this all came up. Yes, it would have helped, but this needed to be said sooner rather than later. As a result, we likely have one spy caught, and that's what is important.

bebe said:

we are assuming anneliese is telling the truth when she said "so far i have 6 points"

if she is lying about that, then all of the above is false and we are on a wild goose chase that she created.

That's why I added her lying as a possibility. If that possibility is false, then we know that she is telling the truth, and that one of the other three possibilities(that being someone else is lying about how many words they posted) is therefore true.

I'd like to comment on why I said Tenchi is 50-75%. Mainly, everything he has said to me has checked out. I've yet to catch him in even a partial lie, which is more than I can say for most other people. That's not to say everyone else has lied, but I've spoken to him more than anyone else, and for him to have not slipped up over that period of time is impressive. Secondly, on episode two, he was willing to "waste" his vote voting me while I voted him. The reason we decided to do that isn't important, but I really don't see a spy doing that no questions asked. He isn't confirmed by any means. And as I gain more information, this confidence is definitely subject to change.

[Jack]

This just in:

I will not name who this player is. This player has told me that they were given a special ability during episode four. This special ability was what prevented the Imprisonment to occur, so they say. This person was able to select as many players as they wanted to protect. The downside was that this player would receive a penalty of a sort. I won't explain what the penalty is. They said they protected: Anneliese, Arthur, Reicheru, and myself.

Anneliese was also made aware of this, and can "confirm" it.

If this is true, then one of us was targeted.

[Tenchi]

Sam just posted an important update and clarification with regard to Spies rules.

Obviously this differentiates the terms for saving (the power of the psychic) and blocking/protecting for imprisonment.

In this terms, there seem to be four people who were protected by this blocker (check Jack's post). However, I have received a hint that somebody was "blocked" the last round, I feel there is somebody else with an important ability as well.

This doesn't tell us much as who are the Spies, but I still feel somebody is making up a role. There cannot be too many people doing mass protections at the same time. This is definitely odd.

From what I see, there are three people who can do this: Annie, a source from the new people (you know who you are, but you retracted at the last minute, so I'm not sure if you just made up the reason why you were saved), and now the person who saved Jack, Rei, Annie and Arthur.

[Jack]

I'm thinking Anneliese's ability falls under the "Immune From Imprisonment" category. The person who sent me clarification on their ability, on the other hand, was a temporary "gift" that was a one-time use. That makes sense judging by Sam's "this will never happen again" response.

I'd like to know more on what that person told you, Tenchi.

[Reicheru]

You are correct: somebody did make up a role. Me. I made up a role saying that I could occasionally have visions of innocent people, and I did it purely to prevent innocent citizens from being exiled. However, the only thing I have accomplished so far is to be personally responsible for taking out two citizens, Jakub and Judith. (Yes, her too. Ask Anneliese, Jack or Tenchi.) That means I probably deserve what I am undoubtedly going to get this exile.

Since I have had my bluff called, I expect to be exiled. That being the case, when it is proven that I am a citizen, you should know that TENCHI is a spy.

I would also advise you to be extremely wary of one of JESSICA and JACK. One of those two is a spy.

And I have heard strong suspicions from various people of: BEBE, TRINA, BROOKS, CLAIRE, RAPHAEL and TAYLOR.

Finally, SHANE and ARTHUR could still be spies, although I think it unlikely. I believe CARRIE was framed, and TENCHI has accused her, so it is very unlikely that she is a spy.

I wish all citizens the best of luck. Some of you may not believe this now, but I have always had your best interests at heart.

Sayonara.

[Reicheru]

I will correct myself... Jack's post is WRONG.

There are NINE posts, not eight.

I post twice.
Tenchi claims to post twice.
Jack claims to post once.
Jessica claims to post once.
Anneliese claims to post three times.

This makes NINE. Anneliese claims there are only SIX posts. Since I think it highly unlikely Anneliese would be stupid enough to incriminate herself, this means that there are THREE votes unaccounted for.

Anneliese swears she did not make a mistake and the three posts she herself made are valid. That means one person lied about their two posts, and one lied about their one post.

Therefore, not only is ONE of me and Tenchi lying, but also one of Jessica and Jack. My stronger suspicion is Jessica, but I am far from ruling out Jack.

Keep this in mind.

[Jack]

reicheru said:

You are correct: somebody did make up a role. Me. I made up a role saying that I could occasionally have visions of innocent people, and I did it purely to prevent innocent citizens from being exiled.

Ok, so you got caught in a lie. How about explaining how your false-claiming was going to benefit any of us. Regardless, we know that whoever told Anneliese that Reicheru has no role is a confirmed innocent, because Reicheru has confirmed that she was indeed lying.

reicheru said:

Since I have had my bluff called, I expect to be exiled. That being the case, when it is proven that I am a citizen, you should know that TENCHI is a spy.

Where are your reasons for suspecting him?

reicheru said:

I would also advise you to be extremely wary of one of JESSICA and JACK. One of those two is a spy.

Again, reasons?

reicheru said:

And I have heard strong suspicions from various people of: BEBE, TRINA, BROOKS, CLAIRE, RAPHAEL and TAYLOR.

Finally, SHANE and ARTHUR could still be spies, although I think it unlikely.

You've listed 11 people who you suspect. That's about half the game, and you've given 0 reasons for any of them besides Tenchi accusing Carrie.

[Reicheru]

Gladly.

Tenchi is a spy if Anneliese is correct about her role, because people have claimed to make nine posts for the "bunker" and Anneliese confirms there have only been six. Unless Anneliese's three posts do not count - and she has confirmed that they do - the three missing posts must have been caused by a combination of lies or mistakes from Jack, Jessica, Tenchi and myself. Tenchi and I claim to have posted twice each, Jack and Jessica once each.

Well I know I posted, so if Anneliese is correct, Tenchi cannot have done. That accounts for two of the three missing posts. That leaves one more post unaccounted for. Again, if Anneliese is correct, this has to have come from Jack or Jessica. One of those two is either mistaken or lying.

The names of the newcomers are simply names that have been suggested to me. I have no way of knowing if they are spies or not but some people suspect them.

How would my pretended role help the citizens? - I plan to have a "vision" if someone I am sure is a citizen is about to be exiled. That way I can hopefully save them. This vision was supposed to be prompted by a spy using their "secret power" - I do not know if spies have powers or not, it just seemed like good way to excuse the fact that the visions would not be at regular intervals, like a counteragent.

The opportunity to use this ability simply never comes up, so I never get to use it. Not everyone who fakes a role is a spy, to some it might just be second nature to attempt something like that. Think about it, especially you Anneliese.

I also suggest you think hard about exactly why I, as a spy, would fake a role and then only tell ONE PERSON about it, and someone who (at that time) already trusts me a great deal. Unless I plan to use the role to "clear" a suspected citizen or spy, I have nothing to gain in either case.

And if I am a spy, planning to clear other suspected spies, again why tell only one person, Anneliese? Why not make sure of being able to "save" a spy by telling three or four citizens and pretending that I trust them? In that way I am almost certain to be able to stop an exile I don't want. With only Anneliese, I have much less influence.

I am a citizen, and the reason I only trust Anneliese with my "role" is because I do not believe I can 100% clear anybody else. To accidentally tell a spy would be to invite imprisonment, even if they knew I was lying about what I claimed regarding a spy's "ability". Anneliese I was certain about because she told me about her ability in episode one, yet her high target of 27 posts only makes sense given the newcomers at the end of episode two. If she faked her role, she would choose a much lower more realistic target.

I am still doubtful about Anneliese's role until after the newcomers arrive. This is why I only tell her AFTER exile 2. Again, you can check with Anneliese that this is the case. As soon as I think she is confirmed, I "confide" in her about my (fake) role and my (genuine) certainty that Judith is a spy.

I have been so bad as a citizen that I probably deserve to be exiled. But if you choose to exile me, you will be exiling a citizen. I suggest you take careful note of exactly who is most vocal about wanting me gone. Anneliese has reason to be, because I lied to her. Others may not have as much reason, yet want me exiled anyway. Look out for them.

Take care.

[Reicheru]

One name I forget is JENNIPHER. Tenchi and she are at each others throats since the first episode, so if one is a spy, the other is not. Regardless, if Anneliese did make a mistake and both Tenchi and I are innocent, Jennipher is still a suspect - but ONLY if Tenchi is innocent.

One other thing. If TENCHI made a mistake and did not post correctly, he and I could both be citizens. Tenchi, if you are a citizen, check exactly what you have posted.

[Taylor]

Tenchi and she are at each others throats since the first episode, so if one is a spy, the other is not.

has no one thought of the fact that spies could very easily stage "being at eachother's throats" to throw us off? seems very straightfoward to me....

[Brooks]

taylor said:

Tenchi and she are at each others throats since the first episode, so if one is a spy, the other is not.

has no one thought of the fact that spies could very easily stage "being at eachother's throats" to throw us off? seems very straightfoward to me....

It just seems too fishy to me for two spies to put themselves in the spotlight, but they could very well be crazy.

[Taylor]

yeah, it could go either way. anyone can argue, but i think it'd be a good spy strategy.

[Tenchi]

For the record, Annie, I want to know what the post is supposed to look like. This was not clear as to where the word was supposed to be posted. The least that I want to happen is that I would be Exiled and be confirmed a Citizen only because of technicalities, if the technicalities are even true.

(I will not be online for very long for the next few hours as I am getting busy with life).

I really think Reicheru is a citizen and is doing her best (sometimes too hard) on getting Spies. She has been coming up with dangerous, yet devious, plans to get suspects out.

I firmly believe that she is an asset to the Burg.

Jack, we will talk on AIM. I cannot compromise the identity of the Citizen on this.

[Jack]

Well, I'm not feeling all too comfortable with accepting the fact that Reicheru is a cleared Citizen after having been caught in a lie like that. I mean, what would a Spy do in that situation? There really aren't many options at that point.

But what concerns me on top of that is her seemingly passive involvement in the Judith exile. She sent Anneliese notice that she was "150% certain that Judith is a spy." As far as I could tell, there wasn't really much reasoning other than that her "role" made it all possible. Of course, she clung to that idea until it proved to be a lie. But more importantly, who did Reicheru vote for in that Exile? Well, certainly not the person who she was CONVINCED beyond all doubt was a spy. She voted for Carrie. Ironically enough, she told Anneliese how to accuse Judith, and Anneliese told me. So Reicheru is really to the main contender behind the Exiling of Judith, yet she cleverly attempted to sidestep the blame by placing her own vote on Carrie and telling Anneliese to tell no-one about her involvement. I'd be glad to forward this mail if anyone would like.

Those two are really the largest concerns of mine. She lied about her role in order to get Judith Exiled. Now that she has been caught, she is playing the innocent card as a lack of better options.

Personally, I don't think much more could be said about Tenchi/Anneliese. From what I'm hearing, Anneliese seems to be a solid Citizen case, and if that winds up being true, then I'm going to have to bank on Reicheru being our Spy.

[Tenchi]

"This doesn't tell us much as who are the Spies, but I still feel somebody is making up a role. There cannot be too many people doing mass protections at the same time. This is definitely odd."

Just bumping up this note.

[Raphael]

As for what all Jack has posted, WOW, you are amazing and a great thinker and amazing job sifting through all of that info. And I appologize that I haven't had much time to talk with many of you. I have been really busy, more than I expected, and I am trying to talk to more of you. I am usually one during the day, and I will try to be on more at night as it seems when most of you are on because reading through all these threads can get a little confusing at times.

[Anneliese]

Again, Jack has beaten me to posting everything I know, so I apologize for that. However, out of all in question, I have given Jack the most amount of detail, so most of what he said was right.


Basically we have 2 solid options this week:


We Exile me under the suspicion that I invented my ability (and all 3 variations I told the new people so that I could save my ass from Imprisonments),

or we Exile one of those other 4. I would be highly suspicious if NOW Tenchi came forward and said he posted it wrong, because it WAS made clear - especially after Jack made that mistake his first time around, that you post the word IN YOUR CONFESSIONAL. Sam has told me as long as it's in your confessional, it will count.


Therefore, under the assumption that I'm not a Spy, Reicheru is right - Either Reicheru or Tenchi is a spy (or lying about posting for no reason at all), and either Jack or Jessica is a spy (or lying about posting for no reason at all). What makes this terribly peculiar is that maybe minus Jessica for some of the other people, we all trusted each other before the last exile, and they all trusted me before last night's Imprisonment. If the way Sam worded something is going to make Jack and Tenchi fly off the handle and suddenly accuse me of lying, then I cannot say much more than how much suspicion that throws on them as the lying pair in this plot. I would like to believe that everyone is telling me the truth, but it still holds that Sam told me I only have 6 points.


So MATHEMATICALLY, the only thing that makes sense, since I have checked any other options and confirmed all point possibilities, is what I have already stated. Unless I am lying.

And if I were, I would not have called this much attention to myself. As I pointed out to Jack earlier, if I were a spy, this is not how I would play the game.



Anyway, as far as Reicheru, I am still not sure if I suspect her more than Tenchi now. The fact that Tenchi and Jack are able to fully flip their thoughts of me after 1 sentence from Sam, really makes me ponder their alignment in this game. Tenchi knew I was suspicious of him, Jack too, after my point update... So what better way to remain safe than to accuse the person who suspects you?


All I can say is I know my vote will go either Reicheru or Tenchi this week, because of what the HOST of this game has told me, and that's the only fact that I can bank on right now. So if anyone has any better ideas or really wants one of the two gone, let me know. Because I know once one is gone, if they're a citizen, the other has to be a spy.

In closing, remember what everyone thought yesterday at 7pm - Anneliese was going to be Imprisoned. And now magically everyone thinks I'm a spy? Mmmk, not so much.


~*~ Anneliese~*~

[Arthur]

Anneliese is not a spy. Also, I forgot to mention this, but before Judith went, she said that the only person she suspected at the time was Bebe.