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Post by Judge Sam on May 28, 2007 21:26:14 GMT -5
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Post by Bebe on Jun 27, 2007 22:31:55 GMT -5
So what's up with the Spy list?
I looked at the rankings and there's no way that list can be right if everyone's list counts (ignoring Shane/Jordan/Brooks not providing lists).
Take Tenchi, for example. Sam says he's ranked higher than Jack and Reicheru, but take a look at the rankings they received from their fellow players (1 = most likely to be a Spy; 16 = least likely)
Reicheru:
1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 8, 8, 8, 11, 16
Jack:
1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 14, 15, 15
Tenchi:
1, 3, 7, 7, 10, 10, 10, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 16
Hell, compare his numbers to Trina's, who was allegedly the "least suspected":
Trina: 3, 3, 6, 6, 7, 8, 8, 9, 13, 13, 14, 14, 14
Tenchi: 1, 3, 7, 7, 10, 10, 10, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 16
There's no way Tenchi would be "more suspected" than Jack or Reicheru. He shouldn't even be in the top 5 with those kind of numbers, actually.
So how does this "rankings system" work, Sam?
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Post by Tenchi on Jun 27, 2007 23:07:19 GMT -5
lol You beat me to it.  |
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Post by Bebe on Jun 27, 2007 23:08:50 GMT -5
Yay, I win the "most obsessed" Spy award again!
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Post by Tenchi on Jun 28, 2007 0:18:41 GMT -5
I'm not giving up... give me ten more minutes...
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Post by Bebe on Jun 28, 2007 0:24:40 GMT -5
Too bad I already closed my spreadsheet.
Actually, that's probably a good thing.
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Post by Tenchi on Jun 28, 2007 0:41:08 GMT -5
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Post by Bebe on Jun 28, 2007 0:54:55 GMT -5
(Tenchi - Claire has me at 1, not 4, because ... oh I'll censor myself right here. I'd still be ranked where you have me now though.)
LOL Tenchi, I love that after playing the game with you for 3 weeks, I can read your tables in the bat of an eye.
To look at how a person ranked others, read across the row.
(Ex: Anneliese's list had Arthur at 1, Bebe at 2, Taylor at 3 ...)
To look at the rankings a person received, read down the column.
(Ex: Arthur ranked Anneliese as a 16, Brooks ranked Anneliese as an 8, Bruce ranked Anneliese as a 13 ...)
Orange = heavily suspected; yellow = slightly suspected; green = not suspected
(Right?)
Too bad your tables aren't up in the Spy HQ yet.
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Post by Tenchi on Jun 28, 2007 1:25:37 GMT -5
I win Bebe!   Shot at 2007-06-28 Interesting indeed.  |
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Post by Bebe on Jun 28, 2007 1:40:16 GMT -5
I'm not worthy!  |
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Post by Tenchi on Jun 28, 2007 2:01:12 GMT -5
Edited with Bebe's correction
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Post by Reicheru on Jun 28, 2007 3:33:22 GMT -5
Yes! That's a disgrace! Sam, please provide an explanation IMMEDIATELY, etc, etc! But why don't we get to the bit everyone's REALLY interested in... If the spy lists are correct as posted by Tenchi, which CITIZENS did well? Of course one predictably stands out.  RAPHAEL - I ranked him the highest of any citizen in terms of the ranking I gave him. Looking at Raphael's list makes it clear to me how he managed to get all the way through the game without picking up a single vote... JESSICA - I ranked her the joint highest of any citizen with one person (Trina). TENCHI - I ranked him second highest, after Trina. CLAIRE - I ranked her the second highest of any citizen, after Bruce, and I didn't even suspect her! Ever! So don't ask me how that one happened... BEBE - Ok, I screwed up, but only because I still thought she was the gift giver. If you'd have asked me a few days later, when Taylor was revealed as the GG, Bebe would've been #1 (because I thought there was one very simple reason why she'd let me go on assuming that she was the GG, and it had everything to do with her being a spy and nothing at all to do with "protecting" Taylor as she claimed - although she made a damn good effort at convincing me of it!) So in terms of my suspicions, at least at this point, I really was the best citizen! (Or the worst, because despite having a better spy list than anyone else, I still couldn't get one of the buggers out? You decide...) Going off the subject of my personal performance for a minute... Although every single citizen got at least two spies in the top half of their list, not one managed to have every single spy in the top half. I came closest with four out of five ranking eight or higher. Trina, Anneliese and Matthew all managed three spies in the top eight. Apart from those four, every single one of the (six) citizens placed only two spies in the top eight spots... which makes Sam's spy rankings (four spies in the top eight ranked) look skewed, to say the least! As for how the citizens did together... if you add up their spy rankings with the lowest score (the highest-ranked spies have low placements) as the best, you'd get an average score of between 2.5 (if the player ranked every spy in the first five positions) and 14.5 (if the player ranked the spies 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th). The leaderboard goes: REICHERU gets a score of 28 - an average placement of 5.6 per spy. A VERY unimpressive score that most of the early leavers (Carrie, Leena, Judith or Jenn for example) could probably have beaten at that point, but it only gets worse... MATTHEW comes joint second at 35, averaging a spy placement of 7. As far as I can recall, he was also the first to name all five spies at the final exile. We should've listened to him more.  TRINA joins him with 35, averaging a spy placement of 7. She was also the only citizen to put a spy in her #1 spot, Tenchi. Impressive! From here it's tight: ANNELIESE gets 39 (average placement of 7.8) BRUCE gets 41 (average placement of 8.2) JACK gets 41 (average placement 8.2) MILES gets 42 (average placement of 8.4) And everybody from here on down had an average spy placement of more than halfway down the list of 17... ARTHUR gets 50 (average placement of 10) And finally, TAYLOR manages 51 - placing the spies in an average position of 10.2 out of 17. I blame this mostly on the timing and her confusion over Trina and Anneliese, which cleared mucked up her rankings! As for Arthur, it just looks as though he was having a really, really bad day... again, I think it's mostly timing; his ideas were spot-on by the finale, which is really the first time that we talked in-depth about our suspicions together. None of this takes into account how any of the eliminated players would have done, how Brooks and Jordan would have done, or the fact that it's only a snapshot of one particular moment in time. But it makes an interesting study all the same. And BTW Tenchi, I'm fascinated by your spreadsheets. (Yes, I'm a geek. Deal with it, I have!) I had massive lists of votes and suspicions that I'd got from different people at different times... not that they helped in the end. |
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Post by Judge Sam on Jun 28, 2007 5:32:38 GMT -5
Most accurate Citizens based on their Rankings: (I did this at the time of the list just to see myself who was the closest  1. Reicheru 2. Trina 3. Matthew 4. Anneliese 5. Miles 6. Jack 7. Bruce 8. Arthur 9. Taylor Lists were not accepted that did not follow the instructions. Second, that's not how I do rankings with the 1-16 point scale. I don't believe that accurately reflects how people feel when making their lists. The difference between "most suspected Spy" and "second most suspected Spy" is far far greater than the difference between "8th most suspected Spy" and "9th most suspected Spy," the latter of which could be switched either way with no consequence. Since the very first Parlor Games ranking I did for Survivor: Carlsbad Caverns three years ago, I have used a more accurate scale for compiling rankings that takes this into account. However if my rankings produces ties I then use the other ranking system to separate the two. The next tiebreaker is who got the most highest responses, then most second-highest responses, most third-highest responses, etc. If they got the exact same set of responses then it is reported as a tie. |
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Post by Judge Sam on Jun 28, 2007 5:56:04 GMT -5
I just added up Bruce's and Jack's scores according to Reicheru's scale... and they just don't add up. I got 4 + 5 + 9 + 11 + 14 = 43 for Bruce and 5 + 6 + 9 + 10 + 11 = 41 for Jack. Those were the only two I tried, so no idea on how accurate his other scores are. Just go by my list. Second, Tenchi those images are so wide they make a horizontal bar on my screen and I have like the biggest resolution there is lol. Could you thumbnail them, cut the image in half, or just link to it? I do like those graphs though. I should try and add the scores in Excel, would probably save me a few hours of doing it all by hand on paper and double/triple checking. >< |
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Post by Shane on Jun 28, 2007 7:17:42 GMT -5
The images work fine for me Sammy. :-P
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Post by Reicheru on Jun 28, 2007 8:09:03 GMT -5
I just added up Bruce's and Jack's scores according to Reicheru's scale... and they just don't add up. I got 4 + 5 + 9 + 11 + 14 = 43 for Bruce and 5 + 6 + 9 + 10 + 11 = 41 for Jack. Those were the only two I tried, so no idea on how accurate his other scores are. Just go by my list. Hmmmm... by Tenchi's list, I have given Jack three extra points (edited that one now) as you say. On the other hand, Bruce is dead on at 42, so I'm missing a point somewhere. That said, with Jack's positioning altered, I've still got the exact same list as Sam in terms of "who was most accurate". So I still rock.  |
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Post by Trina on Jun 28, 2007 8:20:09 GMT -5
Reicheru !, if only us two had really followed through on the spy list lol. At this point I just randomly guessed honestly and didn't use any evidence so mine were just lucky guesses. That's why I began to pay attention to Tenchi on getting jack out since i didn't really think tenchi was a spy rofl. D'oh, listen to your SPY list peeps
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Post by Tenchi on Jun 28, 2007 8:39:47 GMT -5
I think the images work fine with wide screens >< And imageshack does not allow me to go back and see my thumbnails, etc...  I should've listened to Bebe. |
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Post by Tenchi on Jun 28, 2007 8:56:01 GMT -5
Just an observation, there is a better similarity with the SAM list and the CITIZEN ONLY list (for obvious reasons as Sam stated; very likely that the evil lists submitted by the spies "did not follow the rules"). Regardless, I still wonder why my ranking was WAY off. |
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Post by Bebe on Jun 28, 2007 16:46:09 GMT -5
Again, Tenchi's rankings:
Tenchi: 1, 3, 7, 7, 10, 10, 10, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 16
If Sam doesn't consider rankings in the 8ish area important, Tenchi's ranking can't be right.
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Arthur[/size]
Jessica[/size]
Miles
Tenchi
Bebe
Jack
Reicheru
Claire
Brooks
Jordan
Bruce
Shane
Matthew
Anneliese
Raphael[/color][/size]
Taylor
Trina
